Market Stake Out
by Jon Shields ~ December 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Please, no more talk about how Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro could give the Mariners the most formidable defensive outfield in the game.
That outfield would have almost zero punch, and Jack Zduriencik, the team’s new GM, freely admits, “We’d like to get a legitimate power hitter, if possible.”
Zduriencik says he has made “some contact” with the agents for free-agent sluggers. But the Mariners, like many teams, are waiting for bargains to develop.
The M’s preference, Zduriencik says, is for a left-handed hitter. Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Garret Anderson, Jason Giambi and — of course — Ken Griffey Jr. all fit that description.
“Our eyes and ears are open, that’s for sure,” Zduriencik says.
This is what I wanted to see. I’ve talked about it here and there in various comment threads with you guys, but I scrapped the post I had on the subject.
We’d love an Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi or a Milton Bradley in our lineup, but there is zero reason to be trying to sign one right now. They’re all waiting for the market to develop, and they all think they can get more money once Mark Teixeira is off the board. Furthermore, there is a good chance that one of these guys gets left out in the cold and is forced to sign for a real bargain.
There are several scenarios in which just about every team that wants one of these hitters gets the help they need (or, in a some cases, realizes they don’t really need help after all or can’t afford it). In which case, you end up with Dunn or Pat Burrell or someone else begging for a job when they were originally expecting to cash in. Right now it would take 3+ years and $40M+ to get one of these guys, but with just a little bit of luck a patient team can end up with one of these sluggers on a 1 or 2 year deal for about $10-12M annually, or possibly less (depending on the hitter).
At the same time, scenarios exist in which everyone lands somewhere, and your team is stuck scraping the bottom of the barrell. That’s not all bad, either, because then you end up with your Eric Hinske, Jim Edmonds or Ken Griffey for pennies, which still helps your team.
This is the smart way to go about this. There is no reason to overpay (in both years and dollars) for Dunn or whoever else and risk another Richie Sexson situation. Let the market come to you, and cash in at the end; whether that means getting a great player for a real bargain, or getting a passable one year replacement for pocket change.
