Market Stake Out

by ~ December 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm

Rosenthal:

Please, no more talk about how Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro could give the Mariners the most formidable defensive outfield in the game.

That outfield would have almost zero punch, and Jack Zduriencik, the team’s new GM, freely admits, “We’d like to get a legitimate power hitter, if possible.”

Zduriencik says he has made “some contact” with the agents for free-agent sluggers. But the Mariners, like many teams, are waiting for bargains to develop.

The M’s preference, Zduriencik says, is for a left-handed hitter. Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Garret Anderson, Jason Giambi and — of course — Ken Griffey Jr. all fit that description.

“Our eyes and ears are open, that’s for sure,” Zduriencik says.

This is what I wanted to see.  I’ve talked about it here and there in various comment threads with you guys, but I scrapped the post I had on the subject.

We’d love an Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi or a Milton Bradley in our lineup, but there is zero reason to be trying to sign one right now.  They’re all waiting for the market to develop, and they all think they can get more money once Mark Teixeira is off the board.  Furthermore, there is a good chance that one of these guys gets left out in the cold and is forced to sign for a real bargain.

There are several scenarios in which just about every team that wants one of these hitters gets the help they need (or, in a some cases, realizes they don’t really need help after all or can’t afford it).  In which case, you end up with Dunn or Pat Burrell or someone else begging for a job when they were originally expecting to cash in.   Right now it would take 3+ years and $40M+ to get one of these guys, but with just a little bit of luck a patient team can end up with one of these sluggers on a 1 or 2 year deal for about $10-12M annually, or possibly less (depending on the hitter).

At the same time, scenarios exist in which everyone lands somewhere, and your team is stuck scraping the bottom of the barrell.  That’s not all bad, either, because then you end up with your Eric Hinske, Jim Edmonds or Ken Griffey for pennies, which still helps your team.

This is the smart way to go about this.  There is no reason to overpay (in both years and dollars) for Dunn or whoever else and risk another Richie Sexson situation.  Let the market come to you, and cash in at the end; whether that means getting a great player for a real bargain, or getting a passable one year replacement for pocket change.


  • BoiseM

    Would having Jim Edmonds in LF for a year be that bad?

    He can still play the field reasonably well. He gets on base at a good clip, can work the count, and still has some pop. He would be a great platoon with Balentien.

    I am still not really sold on Dunn. he is a good OPS guy, but those big swing a miss guys seem to fall off the cliff sooner than others. That, and the whole moving to the AL thing.

    Abreu could be an option for LF/DH. El Guti covers enough ground to make up for Abreu’s diminishing range. Besides he’s be money in the bank for a trade deadline deal…mercinary bat for hire.

    I would have no problem with Griffey or Giambi at DH…as your post points out…if the price is right.

  • Librarian

    90% of my brain agrees with you 100% Jon, it’s the smart move to out-wait everyone and scoop up the last man (men?) standing. A small piece of me though, can’t help but dream that we end up with Abreu–who I think will go sooner than the rest.
    Abreu’s bat is awesome, he can still steal 20 bases, and as BoiseM noted, he’d likely have more trade value than any of the other guys.

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Jon Shields

    Hey Librarian.. welcome to the site.

    I think Abreu is the second best fit for Seattle at DH, just behind Milton Bradley. It’s not because a guy like Adam Dunn wouldn’t be great for the Mariners, but I think those two would give Seattle something they really need that other DH/1B/LF types on the market couldn’t. Bradley and Abreu would fit really nicely into the 3-hole of the Mariner lineup. Currently we don’t have anyone that fits the mold of a number 3 hitter.

    Right now Abreu’s seeking about $16M annually though, which is just way too much.

  • http://myspace.com/tr1ckz pmbaseball7

    How much would you give Abreu and for how long?

  • http://bleedingblueandteal.com Jon Shields

    Last reports had Abreu seeking a 3 year/$48M deal, as I mentioned above.

    Abreu has been consistent as anyone over the course of his career, but the numbers are bound to take a dive any year now. He’s 34 years old, after all, and it’s too risky to tender him a contract that will continue paying him the $16M he made last season.

    I wouldn’t want to give him more than 2 years/$26 or 3 years/$36, and that’s my absolute limit.

    That said, if Seattle went out and signed him for, say, 3 years $42-48M I would still be happy to have him, just not so happy with the dollar amount.

    I think (or am hoping) that Jack Z will be really careful with contracts with Carlos Silva and Kenji Johjima on the books for 3 more seasons. We can’t really afford to have another expensive mistake in the free agent market. If Abreu is signed for a high dollar figure and begins to dramatically fade, we’re going to be in real trouble 2010-2011. I think Jack Z is smarter than to take a risk like that.

  • StandinPat

    Can I just say F Rosenthal? I mean ofcourse the M’s would still be looking to upgrade the OF, but it seems that he is insinuating that a Ichiro/Gutierez/(Chavez/Balentein) outfield would be a disaster, and I couldnt disagree more. I’m sorry but defense has just as much value as offense, expect possibly when you’re talking about a top 5 offensive player, so if you win the majority of your games 3-2 vs 5-4 are you some how a worse team? Really? are you?

  • http://myspace.com/tr1ckz pmbaseball7

    Seriously if you don’t give up any runs you don’t have to score much.

  • Slurve

    Rocco Badelli would be pretty awesome right now…