Trading Washburn
by Jon ~ December 14th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
We all know that Seattle desperately needs to clear out at least one of their rotation spots for 2009. Right now the Mariners have Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Carlos Silva, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow, Jarrod Washburn and even guys like Aaron Heilman, Miguel Batista and Ryan Feierabend jockeying for a spot in the starting rotation.
Keeping things simple, the easiest thing GM Jack Zduriencik could do to keep the young Morrow and Rowland-Smith in the rotation would be to get rid of Washburn. We all know that he is the most likely pitcher to be dealt, and he wouldn’t be on the Mariners today had CEO Howard Lincoln and President Chuck Armstrong not stepped in to block a trade that would have sent him to the Yankees last summer.
Problem is, there isn’t a lot of interest in Washburn right now. A lot of this is because he’s merely a 5th starter on a good team, but paid like a solid #3 with only one year left on his deal. There are a lot of free agent starters that are comparable to Washburn that could cost much less, including Matt Belisle, Paul Byrd, Jon Garland, Livan Hernandez, Braden Looper, Sidney Ponson, Tim Redding, Randy Wolf and many others.
These types of pitchers aren’t going to be coming off the board until closer to Spring Training, meaning that teams aren’t going to be desperate for mediocre starters until the offseason is all but finished. There isn’t a market for Washburn right now, and the chances of trading him anytime soon are slim, unless he gets packaged along with other key players in a deal.
That said, the Seattle Mariners may have to head into Spring Training with a severe overload of starters. At which point, they may have to rely on injuries to other staffs to open up a market for Washburn and their other overpaid and under performing starters.
The point is this: We know that someone has to go, but don’t be surprised or concerned if it doesn’t happen for a couple more months.
18 Responses to Trading Washburn
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The Kid
December 14th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Washburn should be moved to the pen in order to make room for the young guns. Silva and Washburn should both be dealt, at some point in the season, but given the ridiculous amount of money owed to both, neither are likely. Fact is, we could be looking at something very interesting: Felix, Bedard, Morrow(big 3 as in Oakland back in the day), followed by a rejuvenated and slimmed down Silva and a number five in Washburn, who could hold his own with a little luck. Who says we can’t turn it around within a season? Ask the Tigers, or more importantly and recent, the Rays. We still need a big bat, so maybe turning around and dealing Heilman would be best, possibly even to the Rockies to try and turn the deal that was discussed with the Mets for Huston Street, to get some end of the game bullpen help..?
pmbaseball7
December 14th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
The Kid,
I like the rotation except instead of Washburn in the number 5 spot you should have put Ryan Rowland-Smith. Washburn should be dealt with Heilman to the Rockies in a package for Huston Street and possibly a bat like Brad Hawpe to fill in the LF spot.
pmbaseball7
December 14th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
If we can’t deal Wash then he should go to the pen and if RR-S struggles put him back in the no. 5 spot.
I really would like Huston as the M’s closer.
Jon Shields
December 14th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
If I were in charge I wouldn’t look to acquire anyone that is already known as a closer. The position is way overvalued. Instead of trading Heilman in a deal for a closer like Street, I would rather make Heilman the closer and– if at least mildly successful– his value skyrockets simply because he’s racked up a few meaningless saves.
Billy Beane and the A’s are great at turning baseball’s fascination with the save into profit over the past decade or so. Just watch, as soon as Brad Zeigler (or whoever ends up closing for them in 09) racks up a few more saves, he’ll be shipped off for something of value. Could be at the trading deadline, next offseason, or at a later date, but I guarantee you that Beane can’t wait to sucker another team in.
pmbaseball7
December 14th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Yeah true. You make a very good point. I was more interested in getting Hawpe too with Street, not just Street.
JK
December 14th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Personally, no thanks as far as acquiring Hawpe. He’s basically a younger Ibanez. Give him a slightly better stick, although even that’s debatable given the contexts. He actually has a larger L/R split (.739 / .897 career OPS) than Ibanez does (.734 / .849).
He’s probably worse in the field though, as hard as that is to imagine. He was dead last in UZR amongst all fielders, and PMR amongst all right fielders (not sure where to check all fielders at once with that stat).
UZR put him at -37.2 plays, the next closest was Abreu at -25.2. If that difference seems like a lot though, just wait until you extend it to the “full season” UZR/150, where his lead is even larger at a whopping -47.7 to -25.9 for Abreu.
Okay, so he’s probably not almost 50 plays below average. If you take the last few years of PMR and UZR, and figure that he isn’t getting any younger, he’s probably somewhere in the -20 to -30 play range, or around -20 runs.
No thanks to having Misty Mountain Hawpe in Safeco’s left field.
Jon Shields
December 14th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
To add to what you’re saying, Hawpe was also dead last in +/- as well (-37!). And his lefty/righty splits would be even more lopsided if he hadn’t miraculously gotten them under control this past season. Most years he is 100% worthless against lefties.
I’m not a big fan of Hawpe, except when I picked him up on the waiver wire on one of my fantasy teams last season and he went on a hot streak
Let’s stay away from him.
Besides, the Rockies probably would like to keep his bat after losing Holliday and potentially losing Atkins.
Good post JK.
pmbaseball7
December 15th, 2008 at 12:09 am
Yeah true. Plus out of the mile high air he might not hit as well outside Colorado. Should have looked up Hawpe’s stats. I was basing this off his ’08 stats offensively. I bet he wouldn’t have that -37 here because of Gut in CF covering that Left-Center gap. And in Colorado there is WAY too much ground to cover for a guy like Hawpe. But he wouldn’t be good either.
What do you think about a Jonny Gomes/Eric Hinske platoon at DH??
ernier
December 15th, 2008 at 7:56 am
I’d like to see the M’ trade Heilman this off season. I think right now he has good value because of his ability to start or come out of the pen. I think they should give Batista the chance to close, if he succeeds then he can be traded during the season and if he doesn’t then just release him and eat the remaining salary. My rotation would be Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Silva and Washburn (if we can’t trade Wash). I would not put RRS in the bullpen because it would slow down his growth as a starter. The M’s might have to ask RRS to take one for the team and be a starter in Tacoma to start the season until they can trade Washburn.
BoiseM
December 15th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I’ve never really paid much attention to Heilman in the past but I believe he throws low nineties and has a decent splitter??? If that’s the case why not throw him in the closer spot? I know he wants to start…but get in line.
We’d have to eat half of Washburn’s money to have any chance of moving him…and throw in another player. The front office clearly overvalued him at the deadline last year. Even if we had to take on Igawa we still would have come out ahead.
Nice website, gentlemen. You’re on my daily read now.
seatown27
December 15th, 2008 at 9:17 am
at this point i would trade washburn and silva for pretty much anything just to get rid of them. wouldn’t milwaukee be a good fit for washburn, i heard he is from wisconsin, and milwaukee needs pitching with c.c and probably sheets both gone. i would also like to second BoiseM in saying that this is an excellent site and you are also a daily read for me.
section331
December 15th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Can he take Carlos Silva with him? :p
Jon Shields
December 15th, 2008 at 11:46 am
@BoiseM & seatown27 – Appreciate the kind words! Thanks for popping on and adding your 2 cents.
Boise I’m with you in that I think Heilman should be the closer (assuming he stays), and I don’t expect any amount of whining from him to change anything. Besides, closer is at least a step up from setup man; maybe enough so that it’ll keep him happy.
The Kid
December 15th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
I have to disagree with you guys on the closer argument- look what the perfect Brad Lidge did for the Phils, as opposed to Wagner and the rest of the Mets bullpen blowing 8-11 games..turns the entire team around. Or, look at how vital Mariano Rivera was to the success of the Yankees during the 90′s and even still today. I have stated this before, that I feel the best situation to be in is a shortened game, much like the Astros of old used to do, with the 7th 8th and 9th going to Dotel Lidge and Wagner=game over. The Mets just amped up their pen by getting Krod and Putz, as opposed to keeping Heilman to try him out- why would a team who won 89 games invest that much in the end of the game? I would not say the closer role is overvalued-maybe in the free agent market or the trading block, but once you have a solid closer, it changes the makeup of a team’s gameplan and success. I believe Street would be worth Heilman and change.
Jon Shields
December 15th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
If we were looking to contend in a tough division, I might be more inclined to agree, but in our present situation I am fine with developing a new closer (whether it be Heilman or Lowe or whoever else) and giving us an additional chip to rebuild with down the road.
I’ve never been a Huston Street fan, though.. so maybe it’s my bias showing.
banton
December 15th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Hey, ………New member. I came across this the other day and am very impressed.
On the rotation, I have heard a lot of gripping about Bedard and Silva, but the reality is that we own them both. Nothing changes that in the short term. I, for one, believe that Bedard will have a great year now that he looks to be healthy. Morrow should start, assuming that he earns a berth by his play in Spring Training. As to signing Fields, I vote no. We can pick him back up in a later round with our 5 slots. I agree with those who believe that you should not pay big money for a closer/setup guy; you develop from within. This is where Silva slots if he can’t honestly get the job done in Spring Training. He does not have jack to say about it, so we put him where we need him.
I could see Heilman starting, or closing, but I believe that, once the other arms are gone from FA, he will be trade bait for another bat. For once, we have a guy as GM that actually has a strategy. Z will get it done for us.
I may be in the minority, but I honestly believe that we will surprise a lot of critics this year. If you add one more bat, we could be pretty competitive. And Beltre needs to stay……….
Rob T.
December 17th, 2008 at 1:46 am
Teixeira is going to sign with the Orioles. You heard it here first although i’m getting this info from Orioles Hangout
Jon Shields
December 17th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Orioles Hangout was as good a source as any when it came to the Bedard trade last winter. I would love for him to go to the hometown team and throw a wrench into everything.