All we have to worry about is the $1.5M at this point.  Assuming the escalators are tied to games, innings pitched and roster time it’s hard to imagine Bedard will max out the contract.  But, if he does or gets close, you have to think he’ll be earning it.

The mutual option is just a formality.  In order for Bedard to return on that option, both he and the Mariners have to agree to exercise it, and that rarely happens.  If Bedard puts together a relatively healthy season he’ll probably be looking to try and secure a multi-year deal via free agency, thus declining when the Mariners accept.  If Bedard has setback after setback or simply doesn’t pitch up to or near his former ability, he’ll accept and Seattle will decline.  At that price a mutual agreement doesn’t seem impossible, but it’s certainly unlikely.

I’ve got to think that Petit will be claimed when he hits the waiver wire.  If so, that’s too bad, but not a big loss considering the dozen other similar arms in-house.  If he clears, cool.

I was interested to see how the roster situation would shake out, assuming the team would find a way to keep that roster spot available.  But, as Dave mentions, Bedard can’t be placed on the 60-day DL until the season starts, so he’ll be using up one of those 40-man roster spots until then.  Ryan Feierabend and Kanekoa Texeira are probably the prime candidates to be cut if another player is brought in.

Bedard!

Some fans don’t like the idea of bringing back Bedard, obviously.  A lot of this stems from the trade that brought him to Seattle.  A lot of the frustration caused by then-GM Bill Bavasi has turned into resentment for Bedard.  I understand how that could happen, but I think it’s a little ridiculous.  Bedard didn’t have anything to do with how much of the franchise’s future Bavasi traded away for a guy with a history of injuries and durability issues.  Bedard came in and did what he could, which was pitch brilliantly and until his arm was about to fall off.

I also understand how it is difficult to separate a potential re-signing from the trade.  After all, if Cliff Lee were to sign an extension with Seattle after the season, wouldn’t we see that deal as even more of a success?  But I would think that the change in management makes the differences clear.  If Bavasi was still around and he brought back Bedard under the same circumstances it would probably look like he was trying to recover a sunk cost.  It’s different with Zduriencik.  He knows that those prospects are a sunk cost, and it’s not like he cares about any moves made before his hiring anyway.  If Bedard is a Mariner in 2010, it’s because he’s a good fit for the team.

At $1.5M plus incentives, the dollar figure reported by Jim Street, Bedard is a smart pickup.  If you see him returning to his normal performance levels it’s a no brainer.

Of course, Bedard cannot be counted on to be the same guy that was worth almost as many wins above replacement in 83 innings last season as Jarrod Washburn was over the course of the entire season.  He cannot even be counted on to be a big league caliber starter at this point.  Recovering from surgery on a torn labrum is not like recovering from Tommy John surgery.  This has been a career-ender for a lot of guys.  Granted, the surgeries are becoming more and more successful, as noted in Larry Stone’s writeup on the subject, but we still don’t know what’s next for Bedard.

If Bedard experiences setback after setback, all the Mariners have to deal with is a bit of frustration and a relatively small salary.  If he can come back and pitch effectively, he could be a nice little boost for the club.  It’s simple, really.  Would you rather have Doug Fister (or whoever) from April through September, or would you rather have Fister from between April through June and Bedard from July through September?  Some will inexplicably pick the former for the stability, but they’re not thinking clearly.  As our buddy Jeff Clarke writes, Bedard was worth more last season (in terms of WAR) than Jason Vargas, Fister, Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell combined.  Granted, those negative WAR players make the argument easier, but the bottom line is that Bedard was worth 1.9 WAR while all of those guys were worth 0.3 WAR or less.  He goes on to note that “Bedard+jobshare was one of the top 25 starters in the AL.”  A nice way to put it in perspective.  Many will dismiss the idea of bringing Bedard back because it’ll be frustrating, but that simply isn’t a smart way to view the situation.

Some people aren’t fond of this development because they feel like signing Bedard stops Seattle from making a better move; that the opportunity cost of signing Bedard is Washburn or Aaron Harang or [insert pitching target here].  I doubt that, however.  Again, Bedard is no sure thing to give Seattle anything in 2010.  Seattle is not banking on Bedard, they’re gambling on him.  All of the other AL West teams have pitching gambles from Rich Harden to Ben Sheets to Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana, and Seattle figures they may as well get their own lottery ticket.  If the money and resources are there to upgrade over the in-house back of the rotation guys, I doubt Bedard will stop them from making a move.

As far as Washburn goes, he is shit out of options.  As far as we can tell, he limited his options to three teams or retirement, the Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and our Mariners.  The Brewers went another route, the Twins offered him a $5M contract and spent that money on Orlando Hudson when it went unaccepted, and Seattle has seemingly placed him on the backburner indefinitely.  If Washburn wants to play in 2010, he’ll have to take relative pennies from Seattle (unless Minnesota has more money than I think), in which case he’s no risk for Seattle and there is no reason not to bring him aboard. As far as the other potential trade targets, Seattle has other iffy spots in their rotation.  Snell didn’t show much promise last season and, while it’s easy to forget, Ryan Rowland-Smith missed much of the year trying to get himself right after an elbow injury.  If you’re worried about bringing in Bedard plus one other guy, don’t forget that those guys aren’t exactly reliable either.  I’m sure Seattle could find a way to get everyone in.  It would be a nice problem to have.

I love Erik Bedard.  He’s one of my favorite Mariners of the 2000s, without a doubt.  One of my favorite Mariners ever, really.  But it isn’t just my fandom that has me supporting this signing.  I find it hard to see such a deal in a negative light.  At very worst it’s a “why not?” or “it can’t hurt” deal, right?  If Bedard can’t get healthy, or can’t perform, or has any other problems, that’s too bad.  But if he can string together a handful of good starts he’ll be worth it.  If he can be a third ace for half the season and into the playoffs, even better.  I’m not counting on it, but there is no reason not to take that gamble.

Ichiro!

It’s hard not to justify a $1.5M contract to a pitcher of Bedard’s caliber, despite his injury history or complete lack of durability.  We’ll talk more about Bedard if he indeed re-signs with Seattle.

Addendum: I’ve been letting this marinate a bit, and I am have a hard time believing it.  Why would any team sign Bedard at this point in the offseason?  Furthermore, why would any team offer him guaranteed money at this point in the offseason?  Maybe it’s a good faith move by Seattle, but until we get further confirmation I’m having a hard time buying in.

Update (9:00 AM): MLB Trade Rumors tweets: “MLB.com’s Street clarified via email that source says an agreement with Ms/Bedard has been reached, but not done deal due to shoulder tests.”  Far from a done deal, then.

Update (1:45 PM): Bedard tells Street’s homeboy Larry LaRue that “no one’s made a concrete offer.”  Meanwhile, FOX’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets that Bedard is close to a deal with Seattle according to a source.

At this point, I’d guess a deal gets done as long as the Mariners are content with what they find in the physical examinations.

Update (Friday, 8:30 AM): Lookout Landing passes on a report that says deal is a go pending a physical.

For the last two seasons we’ve had a couple fantasy baseball leagues affiliated with the site.  2008 was our first year, when we had a bizarre 16 team 10×9 H2H on Yahoo! commished by former BBT contributor Patrick, in which Grey from Razzball.com won.  Last year we filled two 18 team 7×7 leagues, one Roto and one H2H.  I took the gold in Roto, while our buddy Ian, who now writes at FakeTeams.com, won the H2H.

I’ve sent out a couple tweets gauging interest, and on Twitter response alone we could fill two deep leagues.  I almost fear what kind of turnout we might have in the end.

Because of that, I probably won’t be doing first come first serve this time around.  That’s how we filled the leagues last year, but we ended up with a bunch of people that were total duds.  This year, I’m going to pick and choose.  It’s not fair, but it’s my site.  “Grandma’s house, Grandma’s rules.”

That said, those who chime in early will get some pull when it comes to filling out the leagues.  So, everyone, let’s hear it.

Let me know if you’re interested, what type of league you’d like to be in (website, Roto or H2H, which stats to use, number of teams, etc etc etc), why I should include you and anything else that seems relevant and we’ll take it from there.

We’re very much playing this by ear at this point, so all suggestions are welcome.

Mariners DFA Gaby Hernandez

To make room for Garko, the Mariners designated for assignment right handed pitcher Gaby Hernandez.  Acquired in the Arthur Rhodes trade, Hernandez was once a hot prospect that has lost some velocity and the bite on his curveball the last couple of years.  He’s no longer a prospect, and unless something changes in his skillset, his upside is no more than the the 5th or 6th man in a bullpen (middle relief, swing man).  He’ll probably clear waivers, but if he doesn’t it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

The contract

Garko signs for a little over a half-million dollars, with bonuses based on plate appearances taking his potential earnings up to a little over a cool million.  He’ll probably land somewhere between $600-700K, barring an injury that turns him into a full-time player.

That is a steal of a deal, in case you’re wondering.

Role

“It’s pretty obvious I’m here to help against left-handed pitching, whether as a first baseman or DH, and be around to catch if the situation comes up,” Garko was quoted in this Larry Stone blog post.

Yes, it is pretty obvious.  Garko will steal some starts from Ken Griffey and Casey Kotchman, and will be one of the pinch hit options for Jack Wilson or Rob Johnson or whoever else.

Head over to Lookout Landing for more on the Kotchman/Garko platoon.

On to Garko the catcher.  Here’s another quote from that same Stone post:

“I caught all the way to Triple-A, and really would have kept doing it except Victor Martinez signed a five-year deal (with the Indians),” he said. “I felt it (switching positions) was my best path to the big leagues. It’s there. Jack and I talked about it. Just in terms of giving Don the opportunity to make moves in games, it’s important for us to have that third catcher. It just gives us more versatility and I think it can help the team.”

I’m trying not to pay any attention to this, and you probably should too.  Every team has an emergency catcher, and it’s usually someone who hasn’t caught for years and years, or in some cases never at all.  Mike Sweeney, Willie Bloomquist and Raul Ibanez are some of Seattle’s recent emergency catchers.  Chances are, Garko is no different.  Chances are, Garko will keep a catcher’s mitt in the back of his locker in case Rob Johnson’s surgically repaired wrist disengages and Josh Bard gets ejected when an umpire confuses Bard’s self-directed insults for an attack on his own mother, or any other bizarre combination of events that wipes out Seattle’s catching depth for the day (whoever those catchers might be; Johnson/Bard are my defaults for now).  Chances are, the most time behind the plate Garko sees with the Mariners will be early in Spring Training when the team needs extra catchers to handle the tons of pitchers that will be hanging around throwing bullpens.  It’s nice to think it gives Seattle some flexibility, but do you really see Garko, a guy that hasn’t played catcher regularly in half a decade, behind the plate, no matter who he might be catching?  Garko makes it sound like moving to first base was his decision, but he was a bad defensive catcher back when he moved to get around Victor Martinez (according to old Baseball America scouting reports).

So, Garko will play some first base, DH, maybe some left field in emergencies and will let his catcher’s mitt collect some dust.  But an emergency catcher is something that is required even if it’s not high on the checklist, so it’s nice to be able to cross off that minor role, I suppose.

11 man pitching staff

As mentioned in previous posts and across the blogosphere, bringing in another non-outfielder means Seattle probably goes with an 11 man pitching staff.  Manager Don Wakamatsu seems okay with this, based on these quotes from Doug Miller’s MLB.com article:

Since the team also has Ken Griffey Jr. as a part-time DH and occasional outfielder and will carry two catchers and an infield that consists of Garko, Kotchman, second baseman Jose Lopez, shortstop Jack Wilson, third baseman Chone Figgins and utility man Jack Hannahan (or Matt Tuiasosopo), there would only be room for 11 pitchers.

“That’s the way it slots out right now, but you just don’t know,” Wakamatsu said. “So many things can happen in Spring Training, and you’d always rather deal from a position of strength than one of weakness. As manager you can never have too many. It’s a good problem to have.

“Plus, with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee as your No. 1 and No. 2 starters, you’d like to think there’s some benefit there and that maybe we’ll have that luxury at the top of the rotation to do that.”

So, unless something unforeseen happens between now and Opening Day, let’s assume Seattle will go with just six men in their bullpen.

Roster scenarios

First, let’s start off with the snenario I posted a couple days ago, when I inserted Garko as a hypothetical.

Lineup vs. RHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Kotchman
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Bradley/Langerhans
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Griffey/Bradley

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Byrnes (utility outfielder, pinch runner)
Garko (first baseman, emergency outfielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)/Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

Lineup vs. LHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Garko
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Byrnes
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Milton Bradley

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)
Kotchman (first baseman, pinch hitter)
Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

That is still my ideal scenario.  It’s hard to envision Garko getting much time at DH except for days when Bradley and Griffey will both be on the bench at the same time, which will happen from time to time to keep them fresh and healthy.  I can’t imagine Seattle going with any other basic bench structure as things stand now.  They could carry an extra infielder instead, and use Chone Figgins as the on-field 4th outfielder against lefties, but that would be far from ideal.

Emergency scenarios with the above setup

With the lineup against right handed pitching, the Mariners can lose any one player without being in too much trouble.  Wilson getting hurt would put the most pressure on the team, leaving Figgins or Hannahan to play the position.  But that’s fine for just one day or even two.  If Wilson misses some real time the Mariners have reinforcements in AAA.

The only combination of losing two players that would put Seattle in a serious bind would be if two non-1B infielders were hurt, which would leave Garko to play 3B, presumably.  Obviously, that’s not likely to ever happen, and given the likelihood I suppose Garko would be good enough in a pinch.

With the left handed lineup, the same deal applies for the most part.  Seattle could lose any one player for the day and get by, and could absorb a loss to any two players with the biggest strain coming if Garko had to play 3B.

An extra infielder would be nice, but what are the odds two non-1B infielders get hurt in the same game?  If that is the case, Seattle has bigger problems than having to rely on a guy like Garko to handle the hot corner.

In conclusion

I like the current setup.  Let’s bring on that last pitcher and get this season underway!

Garko crushes lefties at a career .887 OPS clip. While Garko isn’t an impact bat playing every day, he comes surprisingly cheap and offers virtually no risk at that cost. Jon already broke down Garko and his potential impact here, here, and here.

Here are the details of his contract/playing time breakdown.

Garko would earn up to an additional $25,000 each for 325, 350 and 375 plate appearances this season. The former Cleveland Indians and San Francisco Giants player would get $50,000 apiece for 425, 450 and 475 plate appearances, and $100,000 each for 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances.

Update (Jon): Gaby Hernandez has been DFA’d to make room for Garko.

As mentioned in the last post, Seattle Mariners Assistant GM Jeff Kingston has been speaking of the team’s intentions to bring in a right handed hitter for the bench as well as a pitcher the last couple of days at Mariners Fan Fest.

Saturday:

“We’re still looking at a couple more pieces here we  feel we’re pretty close on.  Still looking at another right handed bat, maybe help out at DH and first, and then add another pitcher.  Hopefully we’ll have some more of those items checked off our list here the next week.”

Sunday:

“We are still talking to some right handed bats that are out there on the market right now; we hope to land one here in the next week or so. I think our vision is someone who can help Ken Griffey in the DH spot, maybe spell Casey Kotchman at first base at times against left handed pitching; that’s where we see this player fitting in.  I’m not sure he’s going to be an impact type bat, but someone who can really help out against left handed pitching and give Grif and Kotchman days off at times. As far as the pitching, we are still trying to land a pitcher as well… we do anticipate landing a pitcher sometime in the next week.”

Some interesting stuff.  Two things I take from this with regards to the 1B/DH:

• “out there on the market right now” seems to imply free agents.  Obviously, there is the “trade market,” but I think it would have been worded differently if they were negotiating with other teams for said bat.
• Notice in both quotes that the focus seems to be on getting help for Griffey rather than Kotchman.  You could take this to mean that this bat isn’t necessarily a true first baseman, and also that Milton Bradley could see more time in the field that we’d all like (which is great for the batting lineup, but not for the defense and Bradley’s health).

Two guys jump to mind.  One is Ryan Garko, who I’ve brought up in previous posts, and the other is Jermaine Dye.

Garko is a not-terrible defensive first baseman who has some home run power to all fields, hits lefties well and is a pretty solid hitter overall.    His upside is limited, but I think he’s a known quantity and wouldn’t be much of a risk.

Dye is a little risky considering his age, but the guy still has some big time thunder in his bat (406 average home run distance last year) and mashes lefties (.894 OPS in 2009, .871 career).  He’s only played one game at first base in his big league career and a few more in the minors years ago, but he has stated this offseason that he is willing to play there if it helps him get a contract, and you’ve got to think he may be working out at first base this offseason if that is what he’s telling teams.  That second quote seems to describe Dye better than any available free agent– with the focus on DH rather than first base– and it’s no big surprise that there are some rumblings making their way across the interwebs that Dye is in Seattle for a physical.  I have no idea where this rumor first came from so I’m certainly skeptical, but it seems to match up with Kingston’s quotes.  Keep an eye on that (but please curb your enthusiasm until then).  Dye recently turned down an offer worth about $3.3M from the Chicago Cubs, according to reports.

More on how Dye would effect (handcuff?) the roster and what could be expected from him if he should sign.  Same with Garko or anyone else.

It wasn’t completely surprising, but if the Mariners were to bring in said player it would certainly shuffle things up.  It would likely mean dropping a middle reliever or an outfielder.

If the Mariners drop a reliever, there will always be a true outfielder on the bench, which is a major plus considering Eric Byrnes’ recent health history, Bradley’s health history and general volatility, and Franklin Gutierrez’ habit of crashing into walls.  A six man bullpen should be okay most of the time, but there would be days when the long reliever would have to pitch in more critical spots than we would like.

If the Mariners drop an outfielder, the team will not have an outfielder on the bench with some lineups, and would have to be willing to bump Chone Figgins, Ken Griffey or the 1B/DH guy to the outfield if someone got hurt.  Figgins can play out there, which would make such a scenario plausible considering that the Mariners have a gold glove caliber third baseman on the bench, but Don Wakamatsu may not prefer to move his starters around.  None of us want to see Griffey out there, even if they say he is a few pounds lighter and the knee is feeling good.  The new 1B/DH guy could play out there in a pinch in some scenarios (say, Ryan Garko), but some guys wouldn’t be able to make it work.

I would like to see the M’s drop a middle reliever and pick up a right handed 1B type that can hit lefties.  Let’s take a quick look at what the team could look like if they signed Ryan Garko (as an example; sub in whoever you like) and went with an 11 man pitching staff.  Let’s also assume that Ryan Langerhans makes the club over Michael Saunders (though I’m rooting for Saunders), Josh Bard makes the team over Adam Moore, and all players are healthy.

Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, scrub or acquisition

The bullpen: David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mark Lowe, Sean White, Shawn Kelley, long reliever (one of half-dozen fringe arms the Mariners have on their roster).

Lineup vs. RHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Kotchman
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Langerhans/Bradley
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Bradley/Griffey

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Byrnes (utility outfielder, pinch runner)
Garko (first baseman, emergency outfielder)
Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)/Langerhans (utility outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

Lineup vs. LHPs:

C: Johnson/Bard
1B: Garko
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Byrnes
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Suzuki
DH: Milton Bradley

Bench:

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)
Kotchman (first baseman, pinch hitter)
Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)
Johnson/Bard (catcher)

I’d be pretty happy with that.

Eric Byrnes: He’s mashed lefties throughout his career and hit lefties pretty well even in his down years, and plays plus defense.  That combination makes him a good fit for Seattle, allowing them to pair him with a left handed outfielder in a platoon.  That he’s dirt cheap allows them to ditch him if his hamstring starts bothering him or if he’s showing his age, and GM Jack Zduriencik indicated in his initial announcement that Byrnes would have to earn his roster spot.  Byrnes has indicated that he has no qualms with being part of a platoon.

Ryan Langerhans: Perhaps the top candidate to platoon with Brynes, Langerhans is essentially the outfield version of Jack Hannahan.  He has a great glove (in all three positions), a decent approach at the plate, can hit a few home runs and swings and misses a lot from the left side of the plate.  Langerhans’ bat will keep him out of the lineup at times, leaving the door open for less desirable scenarios that we’ll get to shortly.  Langerhans is on a split contract, meaning he can be sent to the minors without the risk of losing him (as I understand it).

Michael Saunders: I’ve got to think that the Byrnes acquisition helps Saunders’ chances of making the Opening Day ballclub.  Before the signing, Seattle was looking at a playing the matchups rather than a strict platoon which would have given Saunders unpredictable at bats had he made the team.  With a strict platoon, Saunders can get regular playing time against right handed pitchers, and given Byrnes’ and Bradley’s respective injury histories he could get his fair share of at bats against lefties as well.  Obviously, he’d have to significantly out-hit Langerhans in Spring Training after his poor showing in September.

Milton Bradley and Ken Griffey: If Byrnes and Saunders make the team, you’ve got to think that it cuts into the time in the outfield Bradley sees and the number of at bats Griffey receives, both of which should be seen as good things.  If it’s Langerhans and Byrnes, manager Don Wakamatsu would be tempted to run Bradley out in the field instead of Langerhans to get another bat in the lineup (Griffey). Griffey is at his best when he’s well rested, and he’s an asset as a pinch hitter, so the more games he starts on the bench the better.

I can really get behind a Saunders/Byrnes platoon.  Let’s see if they’ll be given that opportunity or if a bigger fish will be brought in.  I can’t see Zduriencik letting this acquisition stop him from improving the club further if a deal falls in his lap.

Edit to add: In the comments Rob brings up the possibility of a Byrnes/Bradley outfield platoon, with Langerhans being a true extra outfielder.  That is a definitely possibility if Wak thinks Bradley can stay healthy in the outfield, and one that would give Griffey the bulk of the DH time against right handers, which wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing in the world (but far from ideal, in my mind).

Byrnes had a good offensive season in 2007, posting a .812 OPS and stealing 50 bases. Since then, it’s been all downhill. Byrnes was recently released by the Arizona Diamondbacks after struggling with injuries for 2 straight years. He’s been a poor offensive player for those years, with .641 and .663 OPS back to back. He’s right handed hitter who isn’t particularly patient at the plate.

The upside to Byrnes is that he’s an excellent defensive player who can cover all 3 outfield positions. Most projection systems place him in the .710-.740 OPS range for the 2010 season.

Jack Z had this to say on Byrnes: “We think Eric is a great fit for our team. He is a high-energy player with a veteran presence. We look forward to him competing for a spot on our roster when spring training starts.” Hardly sounds like a guarantee or a ringing endorsement.

I view this move as a low risk high reward signing as a 4th outfielder who can platoon or pinch hit against lefties. Even in the past 2 down years, Byrnes has still managed to hit lefties at around a .790 OPS clip. He’s been awful against righties.

Byrnes is an interesting addition who should be able to contribute defensively and offensively against lefties. My guess is that he may fit in a part time platoon with Langerhans (if he makes the team) or possibly bump him from the rotation as we continue to look for another piece to add to the offense. I don’t think Z is done.

The M’s DFA’d Tommy Everidge to make room for Byrnes. We hardly knew ye.

Zduriencik, quoted by Larry Stone:

“We’re still looking for a right-handed bat. We’d like to add a right-handed bat, to be somewhere, whether it’s at first base, DH, outfield. That’s something I think we need, and we’ll continue to pursue that in the next few days, and weeks, depending on how long it takes.

Of course, saying he wants something doesn’t mean he’ll get one.  Last offseason he was quoted multiple times talking about getting a “big bat” and that never happened.

Who is available?  Let’s review some of the free agents that look like they could be a fit for Seattle.

Melvin Mora -The one time All Star and Silver Slugger is going to be forced to consider a utility role after coming off the worst offensive season of his career at age 37.  He has experience at all seven positions, though hasn’t played significant time anywhere but third base in several years.  Still, Mora is athletic enough that you have to think he can make spot starts at 3B, 1B and LF, while being a third stringer at SS and 2B.

Ryan Garko -Garko hasn’t panned out exactly as once hoped, but he’s a solid platoon bat who profiles well as a right handed hitter at Safeco Field because of his ability to hit long home runs and hit for power to all fields.  He has a career .313/.392/.495 line against lefties, making him an ideal bat to steal some at bats from Casey Kotchman and Ken Griffey.  He can play a good 1B and could play some LF in a pinch, though the fewer innings out there the better.

Eric Byrnes – It was looking like he was heading to San Francisco, but apparently the Giants aren’t interested.  He’s an outfielder only, which is unfortunate, but he’d also come at the league minimum, which is a plus.  He’s struggled with injuries in recent years, but when he’s been on the field he’s an effective defender and hits lefties well.

Jermaine Dye – He can’t field, and he couldn’t hit in the second half last year, but he could still be a solid cheap pickup as his market never really developed.  Dye has only played 1B for one game in his big league career, but he has said this offseason that he is willing to work at the position if it helps him get a job.  Dye reportedly turned down a $3.3M offer from the Cubs.  If he’s looking for more than that, he’s going to have a helluva time finding a job.

Jonny Gomes - Had a nice 2009 but can’t do much in the field and doesn’t play first base.  M’s could do worse than to give some of Griffey’s at bats to Gomes, but he would handcuff the team a bit.

Reed Johnson – Mashes lefties, hopeless against righties, decent enough defender in the outfield.  Not a bad fallback.

There are others, but I think these guys will be the ones Seattle looks at first.  That said, there’s no telling if Don Wakamatsu might try to convince Zduriencik to bring back Mike Sweeney or go for Nomar Garciaparra.  Bleh.  Granted, Sweeney wasn’t half bad once he got his legs under him last season.

I’ll take a look at the trade market a little later.  It’s sure to be headlined by Josh Willingham, who we’ve brought up a few times since last season.

It’s a great move by the Mariners and verification that no bad blood lingers from Johnson’s messy departure in 1998. Armstrong said the original idea came to him from marketing VP Kevin Martinez shortly after Johnson’s retirement announcement. Armstrong liked it, and so did CEO Howard Lincoln. Armstrong put in a call to Johnson’s agent, Alan Nero, who ran it by Johnson.

Indeed, it’s great to hear that the ill feelings are fading.  Over the last year or so we’ve gotten some quotes from RJ that showed his willingness to bury the hatchet, and it’s nice to see that the Mariners are on board as well.

One thing this does is it increases the possibility of Seattle retiring number 51 for not just Ichiro but RJ as well, as they should.  I’ve always figured it would work out that way in the end– after all, the Mariners wouldn’t have to make that call until Ichiro is in the Hall of Fame, giving plenty of time for wounds to heal or, more likely, the effected parties to move on from the Mariners making the whole debacle moot– but it’s nice to add some level of certainty.  In a couple years, we should get RJ back to Seattle for his induction into the Mariners Hall of Fame.

I’ve got to think that facade will look nice with #24, #11 and #51 sitting there with #42 a decade from now.

What does everyone think of the Mariners adding Johnny Damon at this point in the offseason?

Update (Scott): The deal makes a lot of sense for both sides – The A’s, a likely 4th place team (though closing the gap) this year, land Sheets presumably to flip him at the deadline for prospects if they’re out of the race. Sheets moves to California for 4 months, re-establishes value, then gets traded to a contender down the stretch, maximizing his 2011 free agent value.

It’s slightly upsetting that the Mariners were unable to land Sheets, but $8 million guaranteed is a large risk for a pitcher with such an extensive injury history, let alone the one that caused him to miss an entire year. Look for the M’s to explore the trade market for another pitcher with Sheets out of the running.

Update (Jon): Jon Heyman tweets that the deal guarantees Sheets $10M plus performance bonuses.

As I wrote a few posts back, you can talk yourself into paying him that much but at that high a guaranteed salary you have to be very nervous.  I would have liked him at $6M, which is where one recent report pegged his asking price, and Graham at Lookout Landing recently wrote that Sheets was worth about $5.25M guaranteed.

That he gets $10M from Oakland suggest that they outbid the competition, which isn’t all that surprising.  Oakland, despite being perceived as a non-player in free agency, had some money to spend this offseason and struck out on several big targets.  Oakland hasn’t had a great team in recent years and doesn’t exactly have the greatest facilities in baseball, so they probably had to overpay a bit to get him.  Billy Beane isn’t exactly Omar Minaya here.  He feels like he needs a guy of Sheets’ caliber to stay up with the rest of the AL West, and until Sheets breaks down you’ve got to think the A’s will be right in it.  The AL West is going to be ridiculously competitive in 2010.  The division could go in any order.

That’s a lot of money to give him and I don’t blame GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners for passing.  I have to imagine that the A’s will be quick on the trigger to move him at midseason if he’s made it that far without breaking down, even if they’re not that far out of it.  It will be interesting to see what they do if they’re on top of the west or only a couple games back.

Orlando Hudson (free agent signing) and Francisco Liriano (obtained for Lopez plus scraps) are greater than Lopez and in-house rotation candidates Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, et al (though, as mentioned in the previous post I’m wary of Liriano); or Hudson and Josh Willingham (obtained in Lopez trade, plus anything else you would get) are greater than Lopez, risking injury to Milton Bradley by playing him in the field against lefties and giving Ken Griffey more playing time than he deserves.

#2: He isn’t a good fit for the ballpark – As we know, Safeco Field gobbles up right handed power hitters for breakfast.  Some have made the case that Lopez is able to skirt Safeco’s effect as well as any other right handed power hitter because of the way he pulls all of his homers right down the line.  But while he has been pretty good at flipping the ball over the hand operated scoreboard, he isn’t capable of hitting the ball very far (average home run distance for 2009 was just 383 feet), meaning he leaves more than his fair share  of balls on the warning track for easy flyouts or the occasional double (although most doubles that land on the warning track are line drives that didn’t have a chance to leave the yard anyway).  He falls just short in left field more than other Mariner righty double digit home run hitters the last couple of years.

The numbers reflect this as well.  In 2009 he hit .229/.254/.387 with 8 home runs over 321 plate appearances at Safeco Field.  On the road he hit .313/.348/.535 with 17 home runs over 341 plate appearances.  Exactly how is Lopez one of the rare right handed hitters who can perform at Safeco?  The argument undoubtedly comes from his outlier 2008 where he hit much better at home (both power and average), but for every other year he has dramatic home/away splits that have him doing much better on the road.  And now that Lopez views himself as a power hitter I’m sure he’ll continue to do better away from the Safe.

#3: Improvements are not guaranteed  - Typically, when you have a 25 year old that hit 25 homers and drove in 96 runners you may think you’ve got a star on your hands, and many fans like to place Lopez on the typical developmental arc and project big things in the future.  That isn’t fair of course, because while many players peak at age 26-28 and begin to decline at 32-33, many do not.  There is no telling whether or not Lopez has reached his peak or if the best is yet to come.

As previously mentioned, Safeco Field limits him.  No matter how good he might get, he’ll always be better elsewhere without a radical change of skill set. That is something that seems to be lost on a lot of fans.  Yes, he’s an asset on the road, but for half the games he is a terrible player.  And no matter how good he could be in a vacuum, he will not get much better in Seattle.  He will blossom elsewhere.  That would be tough to see as a fan and we’d all have to put up with whiners saying the Mariners gave up too early on him a la Carlos Guillen, but that should be used as a selling point rather than a sticking point.  No matter how good he gets, Safeco will put a ceiling on his progress.  There is a reason why GM Jack Zduriencik has made such an effort to bring in players more suited to the ballpark.

You can also include his defensive uncertainty as part of his limited upside.  We’ve all been expecting a decline in his defensive skills given his body type and desire to bulk up and be a power hitter.  To his credit, conditioning was part once a major part of the assumption that he’d have to move off the position and I’d say that is less of a concern now.  He still doesn’t look as athletic of the guys ahead of him on the UZR leaderboards, but I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that he looked significantly less doughy in years prior, and there have been plenty of reports that not his new willingness to put extra work in.  The departure of Yuni Betancourt probably helps in that regard as well.  Also, by being sandwiched by Jack Wilson and Casey Kotchman going forward, you’ve got to think he’ll be inspired to up his game.  So while his likelihood of moving off the position in the near future may not be as imminent as it has been in recent offseasons, it’s still something to watch.  If he has to move to third base chances are his value drops (unless he can be a significantly better fielder at third base than he is at second base, which I suppose is a possibility), and if he moves to first base his value is completely shot.

No matter how much strength he has, his swing as it is now isn’t particularly conducive to big home run power, which should be evident by his home run distances and lack of power to center and right.  There is no ferocity in the swing, very little hip/shoulder separation, and rather than striding towards the ball he actually strides backwards.  He’s gotten really good at rotating his hips and shoulders around, dragging the barrel of his bat through the zone and getting the barrel on the ball with just enough on it for a short home run to left.  Even when he gets a meatball right down the middle– like the Bobby Jenks home run late in the year– that ferocity barely jumps up.  He’s not going to pound a hanging breaking ball the way Adrian Beltre would jump on a mistake and hit it 420+ feet.  He’s going to hit a hanger the same way he hits an inside fastball.   There are tweaks that can be made to give him more power, but there is no guarantee that those changes are made.  As he matures he can gain some strength and turn a few of those warning track balls into homers, but he isn’t primed for a breakout the way other 25 year olds with similar numbers might be.

The biggest reason why I don’t believe in Lopez’s upside is his approach at the plate and the approach opposing pitchers are employing.  We all know that Lopez is a free swinger, and of the biggest hackers in baseball right now.  We all know that he’s among the worst in baseball in terms of walk percentage and pitches per plate appearance.  So it’s no surprise that he saw the fewest number of strikes in 2009 compared to any other point in his career.  But it’s concerning that while seeing fewer strikes, he swung more often than years prior.

But what is worse is the way pitchers are pitching him.  Lopez makes his living on fastballs, and specifically fastballs middle in.  But this past season Lopez saw fewer fastballs than at any point in his career, and if you look at the scatter plots you’ll see that pitchers are going more and more to the outside.  As long as Lopez keeps swinging at everything, pitchers will continue to throw fewer fastballs, fewer strikes and fewer inside pitches.  Sure, the occasional mistake will still float into his wheelhouse and he’ll put it over the fence, but at some point you have to think that his batting average and overall slugging percentage will take a hit, which is where his offensive value lies.  And I’m not sure Lopez can adjust his approach.  We saw “more patient” Lopez under John McLaren, but all that meant was taking the first pitch, usually for a quick strike.  There is room for his fastball percentage to drop another 5-10%, and what happens then?

#4: His trade value doesn’t figure to get much higher – While much of the blogosphere and presumably the Mariners themselves aren’t especially fond of the way Lopez plays the game, it’s still obvious that he’s a bargain at his price.  But all good things must come to an end, and Lopez’s contract only goes through 2011 (if you assume the Mariners pick up his option year, which they likely would).  Yes, that’s still plenty of time to trade him, but every day he plays with the Mariners he is less valuable to a prospective trade partner.

It’s simple enough.  With two years left until free agency Mark Teixeira gets the Texas Rangers Neifi Perez Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and a minor league reliever from the Atlanta Braves.  With one year left, he gets the Braves Casey Kotchman and a minor league reliever.  That isn’t completely fair considering the Rangers made a helluva deal and the Braves made a poor one (at the time, not necessarily in retrospect), but the point remains.  There are exceptions (like the Matt Holliday deals), but for the most part I think it’s safe to say that the shorter the contract the weaker the return, depending on  the market.

Lopez’s trade value isn’t particularly high right now not because of what he’s capable of but because there aren’t many teams looking for second basemen and there are strong options available via free agency.  How much will that change by next offseason?

At this point in the offseason, the only teams that look like they’re seeking a new second baseman are the Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals (who would actually prefer a shortstop so they could move Christian Guzman to second base).  Other teams that could think about getting a second baseman but are more or less content with their internal options are the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers and maybe a couple of others.  Free agent second basemen include Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy and Felipe Lopez, and at one point also included Placido Polanco and Kelly Johnson.  The trade market also includes Dan Uggla, who is viewed as a slightly better option compared to J Lopez, and Alberto Callaspo, a comparable player, among others (no way of knowing every player that can be had).

How does that compare to next offseason? Obviously, things can change quickly.  Players can stop being productive or get seriously injured, or trades can open up different holes, but as of now there only appears to be three or four teams that will really be looking for second base help (Astros, Diamondbacks, Mets, Pirates) and a handful of other teams that could be looking depending on what happens in 2010.

There won’t be near the second base depth on the free agent market.  There are no players that are clear starters, and the best options appear to be Aki Iwamura, Julio Lugo, Juan Uribe and Kaz Matsui.  It’s really tough to try and figure out who could be available in trade this far out, but there are enough guys nearing free agency (Weeks, Phillips, Sanchez, DeRosa, Cano, Uggla) that there could be some big names on the trade market.

So as things stand a year out it looks like there could be an improved trade market for Lopez (assuming his defense allows him to continue being viewed as a second baseman), but it still doesn’t look like a market in which second basemen will be in high demand.  Lopez’s demand could be higher than it is this offseason, but would it translate to higher trade value with only one year left on his contract as opposed to two?  That’s certainly debatable, and I’ve got to think it’s a wash at best.

#5: Extending him isn’t an option – As mentioned, Lopez is a bargain right now.  But with good vanity numbers (HR, RBI, AVG) he could be in line for a substantial raise via free agency, depending on the market.  If he can get himself $8-10M per year he’s not nearly as profitable, especially if you are with me and don’t believe in his perceived upside.

More importantly, Carlos Triunfel and Dustin Ackley are very close to the big leagues.  These are the types of prospects that the Mariners should be more willing to take a chance on (as opposed to going with a proven player with less upside) and will be looking for an infield spot.  Shortstop isn’t likely for either player, and Chone Figgins will be filling one of third base or second base, leaving Lopez’s spot.  There is little reason to keep Lopez around beyond 2011.

…

It’s hard for me to find reasons for Seattle to keep Jose Lopez assuming that there is a beneficial trade out there and that a suitable replacement can be had for a fair price.  He may blossom elsewhere, which would be hard to watch, but the bottom line is that he is unlikely to blossom that way in Seattle.  If you love him, let him go… Ha!

Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider tweets:

Teams dropping out of Sheets running: LAD, LAA, BOS, MIL, PHIL, Cubs, too … Asking price still $6-plus mil guaranteed. Sea, NYM the faves

That is encouraging on a couple fronts.  For one, the Mariners appear to be one of the last teams standing.  Secondly, his asking price appears to have dropped from $10MM guaranteed down to $6MM guaranteed, which is much more palatable.  The bad news is that the Mets are still in there, and as I’ve mentioned earlier they might be the one team that is willing to outbid everyone else given the pressure put on them and their propensity for overbidding.

$6MM plus incentives for Sheets and I’d be pretty ecstatic.  Scroll down a few posts for more thoughts on Sheets.

Josh Willingham

When the Washington Nationals were overflowing with outfielders and in the midst of another 100 loss season last year Willingham was a guy that a lot of us wanted Seattle to make a play for.  He seemed less available for the 2010 season with a Willingham-Nyjer Morgan-Elijah Dukes outfield looking like a lock, but it appears like he could be back on the block.  ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted recently that “The Nationals have again put Josh Willingham back out on the market,” going on to say that moving him would allow them to put Dunn back in the outfield.  Funny, considering that Dunn is historically atrocious out there, but not the most surprising move ever considering it’s, well, the Nationals.  It would only get more hilarious if they’re considering this because they want Mike Jacobs, who they’re rumored to be in on.

But their disaster is none of our concern, so back to Willingham.  The soon to be 31 year old can play not-terrible defense in left field and probably some first base.  He had a solid year with the stick last season, hitting .260/.367/.496 (and his career numbers aren’t much lower).  He works the counts and has some legitimate power.  Willingham would be a great addition to the Mariners whether the team wanted to let him be an everyday player or platoon him with the Langerhans, Bradley, Kotchman, Griffey mish-mash.  Matthew at Lookout Landing has more on Willingham here.

The payroll

All offseason people have been trying to calculate just how much money the Mariners have to spend.  Of course, that is impossible to figure out unless you assume that the 2010 payroll is exactly the same as it was last year.  Since 2006, the Mariners have seen payroll swings of +$18M, +$11M, -$18M.  I’ve been trying to warn about this here and there, though I had hoped that if anything GM Jack Zduriencik would be able to sell the suits on a $10M (or so) bump.  That may not be the case. Shannon Drayer, Thursday:

So what remains? From everything I have heard from the end of last season to today the budget will be less this year than last. One baseball source backed this up saying today that the Mariners most likely “have a little left, but not much.”

Zduriencik, visibly annoyed, used the end of the Cliff Lee presser to address the payroll speculation, saying that he will not reveal the payroll and that there is no way for anyone outside of the organization to know how much they’ll be spending.

If payroll is that tight, any additional moves will have be made efficiently, like the speculated move below.  That said, for all we know there could be the speculated $9-10MM left or more.  It’s a mystery.

Jose Lopez trade rumors and speculation

Lopez trade speculation has been rampant all offseason among fans, seeing that Lopez is not the type of player Don Wakamatsu and Zduriencik seem to prefer and a semi-valuable trade chip.  But of course that doesn’t mean the Mariners will jettison without reason.  They recognize his value.  He’s a league average second baseman who is dirt cheap.  That is great to have.  That said, it had to be assumed that with other dirt cheap league average second basemen on the market the Mariners would look for a team willing to give up something valuable for Lopez, banking on his upside (if they think he has any. I think he has some, but not as much as you’d expect out of a mid-20s player who just put up a 25 homer season.  More on that in a later post, perhaps).

Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez and Adam Kennedy are guys that should come cheap and can provide league average performance at second base.

Now that ESPN’s Buster Olney has added something a little more substantial than “he doesn’t fit the mold” (”The Mariners have been working on possible trades involving Jose Lopez”), let’s take a closer look at some possibilities.

USS Mariner’s Dave Cameron was on the radio the other day (before the Olney blurb) and said that he expects Seattle to trade Jose Lopez for a pitcher or left fielder and then sign Orlando Hudson or another solid second baseman.  The fit Cameron has been pushing for much of the offseason is the one with the Minnesota Twins, with LHP Francisco Liriano the target, so let’s start there.

First, payroll.  In that scenario (Lopez for Liriano and ignoring other minor pieces in a prospective deal, sign Hudson, assuming no money is changing hands), the Mariners barely add any payroll.  Lopez’s $2.3MM salary heads to Minnesota in exchange for Liriano’s $1.6MM salary,  Hudson is reportedly looking for about $8MM, which is probably unattainable, making him more likely to sign a deal similar to what he got last offseason (~$3M + incentives).  If Hudson commands a base of $3-5MM, this series of moves would only cost Seattle about $2-4MM.

Now, is Liriano the type of return you want for Lopez?  The upside is there, and he’s “done it” for short periods of time, but hasn’t put together a full season at the big league level because of injuries.  He had elbow troubles in the minor leagues and finally had Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season and missed all of 2007 and much of 2008 before coming back.  2009 was a good-not-great season for him, but his velocity was down a couple ticks, his walk rate was up and he missed some more time with a sore elbow. And while his elbow has gotten much of the attention, he’s also had some rotator cuff trouble at the time of his TJ surgery, which isn’t all that surprising when you see his mechanics in slow motion. (Note: those are pre-TJ mechanics.  He’s not as extreme now, but still risky.)

But if he can improve by just a little bit he’d be a clear upgrade over what is currently penciled into back of the rotation (Snell, Vargas/Fister/etc).  Dave at USSM wrote in December that he though Liriano makes a lot of sense, and I tend to agree based on performance and upside, though I would be very worried about bringing in an injury risk like that for a proven big league contributor.

But given that Lopez is only guaranteed money through 2010 with a 2011 option and that Hudson wouldn’t represent much of a downgrade if at all on a similarly short deal, it would be almost like getting Liriano for free.  That said, there is mixed information out there as to whether or not the Twins want to deal Liriano.  Moving him now would be a dramatic undersell, but given that they’ve made an offer to Jarrod Washburn despite a deep starting rotation hints that they’re willing to move someone (or move Liriano to the bullpen, which makes some level of sense too).  If they feel like he can regain some of his pre-TJ magic then they will likely ask for much more than his 2009-line is worth, which is probably more than just Lopez.  If another valuable piece is sent to the Twins to get it done, I would be very skeptical.

The aforementioned Washington Nationals are another possible fit.  Right now they’ve got Ian Desmond and Christian Guzman penciled in for their middle infield, but considering that they’ve been connected to free agents Hudson and Orlando Cabrera you’ve got to think they would be somewhat interested in Lopez.  The Nationals have several guys that could interest Seattle from Willingham to Dukes to Dunn to Desmond.

The Detroit Tigers are another possibility.  Right now they’ve got rookie Scott Sizemore penciled in, and seem to be okay with that.  But Lopez is cheap enough (money-wise) that they could consider him.  Ryan Raburn would be a great pickup for Seattle, though he probably fits into the Tigers’ plans a little too prominently to move.  Carlos Guillen could help Seattle’s 1B/DH/LF rotation, though the $26M owed to him over the next two seasons and Seattle’s lack of big tradeable contracts to offset are major roadblocks.

The Colorado Rockies are apparently looking to upgrade over Clint Barmes at second base and Lopez could be that guy (though not by much).  Ryan Spilbourghs and Seth Smith, a couple of spare outfielders, could be of interest to the Mariners.  I’d love to see Jorge De La Rosa on the Mariners, but I don’t see them moving him without being blown over now that he’s starting to break out a little bit.

The Kansas City Royals have some decent second base depth but they’re worth mentioning.  First of all, they’re one of the teams that would probably value Lopez the highest.  Secondly, they apparently would like to get rid of Alberto Callaspo because of his off-the-field antics and negative clubhouse presence (so they say), and Chris Getz isn’t particularly exciting.  If they find someone to take Callaspo the Mariners could be interested in Mitch Maier or Alex Gordon.

(Note: If I’m the Houston Astros I’d be after Lopez.  Is there a player that is a better fit for that park?  There isn’t much of a match there, though.)

Mariners

Ryan Langerhans (+6) – Franklin Gutierrez (+16) – Ichiro Suzuki (+7)

Athletics

Rajai Davis (+6 in CF, no LF projection) – Coco Crisp (+4) – Ryan Sweeney (+14)

Rangers

Nelson Cruz (+1) – Julio Borbon (-3 in LF, no CF projection) – Josh Hamilton (+3)

Angels

Juan Rivera (+6) – Torii Hunter (-7) – Bobby Abreu (-13)

You can take issue with some of the numbers, but the picture painted wouldn’t change much.  The Mariners and A’s have ridiculously good outfield defenses (M’s get the edge for having the best center fielder in baseball while the A’s best defenders are likely to be in the corners, although the amount of time Milton Bradley spends in the outfield could skew things slightly) and the Rangers have a pretty good one (especially if you give Borbon a positive rating. Most scouting reports have him as a plus defender).  The Angels have by far the worst outfield defense in the division, which is just another reason why they’re losing their grip on the division.  Of course, they received below average outfield defense out of center and right field last year and still took the division, but pair that with a rotation that features two injury risks and two pitch-to-contact guys, a lacking farm system, lot’s of money owed to aging players and tons of money owed to a so-so bullpen, a good chance that they don’t get nearly as many BS lucky breaks in 2010, and the loss of Chone Figgins and John Lackey and you’re looking at a team that needs to start making some changes if they want to remain the frontrunner in 2010 and beyond.

Felix is where he wants to be

There has been a lot of speculation in the past that Felix wanted to play in a large market, specifically Boston or New York.  A lot of this seems to have started back when he one hit the Red Sox in 2007, overshadowing Diasuke Matsuzaka’s big league debut.  He’s always been a fiery player, but he seemed more amped up than usually against “the big boys.”  I’ve seen a lot of people suggest that he was showcasing himself.

That’s digging far too deep, I’m sure.  Everyone wants to play well on the biggest stages.  I’m a big Portland Trail Blazers fan and have seen all the games this season, and I always get a kick out of how all the players suddenly have fresh haircuts for all nationally televised games.  When pitchers (and all players) head into New York and Boston they know they’re on the biggest stage and are going to be fired up.  When the bright lights are on, players want to play better, look better, etc.

Now we don’t have to worry about it at all.  Maybe we shouldn’t have anyway.  You may recall that after the last game of the 2009 season and the hug-fest that ensued, Felix was interviewed on the field and said something along the lines of wanting to play his entire career in Seattle.  Of course, that didn’t get much play because it was such an emotional moment that it would be easy for anyone to get ahead of themselves.  But Felix reaffirmed those sentiments at the press conference.

“I just wanted to stay here,” he said. “They offered me a good contract. I don’t care about free agency. I just want to stay here. I just want to win here.”

That was one of the themes of the press conference.  It came up several times that he has wanted a long term contract from Seattle for a long time, and that this is the only place he wants to be.

“Seattle was the first team to give me the opportunity to be a professional baseball player,” Felix said.  “I’m here for five more years and I hope we make the playoffs and I hope we win the World Series for the fans. I know they need it.”

(Note: Thank you, Bob Engle and company, for developing a relationship with Felix that allowed Seattle to bring him into the system without being the highest bidder.)

“It was not a hard decision,” he said regarding his decision to sign with Seattle. “It was easy.”

At a couple points Felix implied– completely unsolicited– that he would like to stick around beyond the five years.

You wouldn’t expect him to say anything different, of course, but he did sound completely genuine and happy with his situation.  It’s obviously hard to tell exactly how much of what a player is saying at these types of events is just saying the right thing or whatever else, but I’m inclined to believe Felix.

Geoff Baker extracted some interesting quotes from one of Felix’s agents:

Hernandez’s agent, Wil Polidor, was asked whether the change in regimes from Bill Bavasi to Jack Zduriencik made much of a difference when it came to getting this deal done. Polidor vigorously nodded his head and said it did indeed make quite a difference.

(snip)

Still, the way it was sounding from Hernandez’s agent, the whole “it takes two to tango” notion, that Hernandez was the reluctant party in a two-sided dance in recent years, wasn’t exactly the case — at least when Bavasi was still around.

“The last three years, they’ve been saying no to him,” Polidor said. “Felix wasn’t saying no.”

All this time we’ve been hearing that team Felix was open to an extension, but much of that was dismissed as “it’s not like they’d say they weren’t interested.”  Bill Bavasi has been heavily criticized for not getting anything done with Felix when the Mariners could have bought out a few years at an even further discount, and he’s not about to escape those criticisms now that we have a slightly less foggy picture.  Apparently, it’s not that Bavasi just couldn’t get anything done with Felix, but that he didn’t view Felix as someone who was worth investing in.  As noted by Baker, Felix was all potential under Bavasi and not yet deemed one of the best starters in baseball, but at the prices that Bavasi could have gotten him at, that doesn’t excuse anything.  Damn you, Bavasi.  Thank you, Jack, for salvaging this and still getting a bargain.

And thank you, Felix, for wanting to be here.  We will try not to change you mind.

Long live the King!  ¡Viva el Rey!

Additional reading (more quotes): Ryan Divish, Shannon Drayer

Ben Sheets, R – Scroll down a couple posts to read more about Sheets.  At $10MM he incredibly risky, but he’s healthy for just 125-150 innings he is good enough to make worrying about $10MM look silly in retrospect.  Still, I would be more comfortable going $6-7MM guaranteed on an incentive laden deal, and I’m sure most teams would be too.  Unfortunately, there are enough teams in on him that someone will probably give in.  This seems like a move Omar Minaya’s New York Mets would make to try and get the fans back on his side (not that it’s a bad move, just riskier than it needs to be).  Sheets would give Seattle a third ace when he’s healthy, but would leave plenty of opportunity for the smattering of back-end arms Seattle has collected, namely Jason Vargas and Doug Fister.

John Smoltz, R – Smoltz hasn’t been connected to Seattle for a while, and not at all via anything more than speculation as far as I can remember, but of course that doesn’t mean anything when it comes to Seattle as GM Jack Zduriencik operates very much under the radar.  At 43, Smoltz still has something to offer and projects as a solid 3-4.  His 3.87 FIP last year was better than all Mariner starters not named Felix or Erik.  At this point in the offseason I would think that Smoltz would have to take a pretty small salary in order to land a starting gig; there are probably more bullpen opportunities for him in the bullpen. I’d pull the trigger on Smoltz for a base salary between $4-6MM.

Jarrod Washburn, L – Washburn was legitimately better last season than he had been at any other point in his Mariner tenure.  But he obviously wasn’t 2.64 ERA good and his luck ran out and he struggled with his bum knee once ending up in Detroit, where his ERA ballooned to a more appropriate (though arguably still lower than it should be) 3.78.  I’m weary of the knee and doubt he puts up another sub-4 ERA year next season, but he is still solid and a good fit for the ballpark. His options are limited and he won’t be getting much money.  For $5MM or less I’d be alright with bringing Washburn back.

Erik Bedard, L – Coming back from serious injury, Bedard is likely to be all upside.  I can’t imagine him getting much guaranteed money at all, but he is also no guarantee to contribute more than a handful of starts in 2010 either.  Because of that, I have to think that he’s Seattle’s absolute fallback option.  That is, they go with Vargas/Fister/etc. and hope that Bedard can steal a dozen starts from them.  Maybe you pair a Bedard signing with another reclamation minor league signing like Noah Lowry, Shawn Hill or even Rich Hill, keeping one of them either in the minors or bullpen until Bedard gets hurt.  For five innings at a time, Bedard is still one of the better left handed starters in baseball.

Chien-Ming Wang, R – Derailed by shoulder and lower body injuries, Wang would be another reclamation project worth looking at.  Wang will not be ready at the start of the season, however, meaning Seattle would have to bridge the gap with someone else.  Wang is a sinkerballer who could do very well for himself with Chone Figgins, Jack Wilson and Casey Kotchman behind him and Safeco Field to gobble up his mistakes.  Because he’s not currently throwing, it’s unlikely that Seattle would view him as anything but a fallback.

No big surprises there.  There just isn’t much left on the market.  If the Mariners do not land Ben Sheets I expect them to aggressively pursue someone via trade (not that they haven’t already as we’ve heard about a couple negotiations that didn’t go anywhere).  I’ll explore some potential options on the trade market soon-ish, assuming a deal isn’t made before then.