I think I’ve held pretty steady in my summation of how the catcher positions would shake out for the 2010 Seattle Mariners. Basically, I’ve assumed that Rob Johnson is on the roster as long as he’s healthy and that Adam Moore could play his way onto the roster, but wouldn’t be rushed.  In posts where I’ve put up sample rosters and lineups I’ve usually gone with Josh Bard as the second catcher with the thinking that Moore has to play his way on to the roster, while Bard just has to be steady.

Just because I went with Bard on those posts doesn’t mean I prefer him to Moore, because nothing could be further from the truth.  I love what Moore has done the last few seasons and he has been one of my favorite prospects since I started blogging after the 2007 season.  And if I were running the team, I probably wouldn’t bother making him play his way on as I think he’s just about as Major League ready as he’s going to get.  But I played it safe because GM Jack Zduriencik went out and got those guys for a reason, and manager Don Wakamatsu has talked about the need of a veteran backstop.

It’s still early, but Moore is playing his way onto the team.

So far this spring Moore is hitting the cover off the ball and turning heads with his improved defense, all after making major strides on defense last season in terms of footwork, managing pitchers and game calling.  In the one game I’ve been able to see so far he looks like he’s in great physical condition as well, for what that’s worth.

Again, we have a long ways to go, but Moore may have his foot in the door.

Plenty more on Moore when his 40-man, Player by Player post comes up in the next week or so.

Utility infielder

All offseason the assumption was that Jack Hannahan was going to be the primary utility infielder.  He’s still in the lead, but a groin injury (thanks, Don Wakamatsu, for making him catch all that time) that has kept him out of action for over a week and will keep him off the field for at least another week is opening the door for others.

Josh Wilson is still around, but Matt Tuiasosopo is the interesting one.

Hannahan is an elite defensive third baseman, and is expected to do more than hold his own at first, second and short in that role.  But offense is a major problem for him.  He has a great eye and some power, but he hasn’t been able to make much contact.  All the other pieces are in place for him to be a big league starter, but he makes such little contact that he’s not a guy you feel comfortable with in the batting lineup.

Tui also has contact issues, but he still is the better bet to contribute offensively at the big league level.  But Tui isn’t much of a defender.  He’s gotten better at third, can get by second and has started re-playing some shortstop this spring, but probably can’t be considered at Hannahan’s level at any of those spots.

So does Wak want a guy that can play very good defense at the corners and solid defense up the middle but isn’t going to do much with the stick, or does he want a guy that can thump the ball a little bit but is merely passable (if that) in emergency innings across the infield?

I’d go with defense, but it’s not my call.  Granted, I’m biased.  Hannahan is one of my favorite Mariners.

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of reviews Tuiasosopo gets on defense this spring and whether or not Hannahan leaves the door open.

Of course, this is a non issue if Hannahan could just improve his contact percentages and get healthy.  Let’s go with that one.

Mike Sweeney and the bench

No one except for Mike Sweeney expected him to make a serious run for the 25-man roster this spring.  The team brought in Casey Kotchman and Ryan Garko this offseason, and the Mariners opted to offer Sweeney a coaching position before allowing him to come to camp as a player.  But Sweeney is healthy and hitting the living crap out of the ball so far this spring and making it interesting.

Given Sweeney’s role in helping turn around the clubhouse last season, many fans want Sweeney on the team. And I would too, under different circumstances.  I’d have liked him to take that coaching gig.  Maybe next year.

That’s not to say Sweeney can’t still hit, because he can.  He raked once he got healthy last season and if he can stay healthy in 2010 I see no reason why he can’t have a productive season.

But I have a hard time seeing Sweeney make the team barring an injury to another 1B/DH type.

For one, he’s an injury risk himself.  With a team featuring injury prone guys like Ken Griffey, Milton Bradley, Jack Wilson and Eric Byrnes, Seattle could really get in trouble if one or (god forbid) two guys went down in a game.  And because he’s an injury risk, he isn’t likely to get much play time in the field.  At least, he shouldn’t if you want to keep him healthy enough to contribute offensively.  Back injuries are not difficult to aggravate (which is one reason Seattle was reluctant to commit to Russ Branyan).

And two, who are you dropping from the roster to make room for Sweeney?  As far as I can tell, the only ways to do it would be to drop an outfielder (likely Ryan Langerhans), which would really handcuff the team on days where Bradley is DHing and Griffey is on the bench.  Either that or he replaces one of Garko or Kotchman, which seems unlikely given their respective upsides and the team’s investment compared to Sweeney.  They view Kotchman as an elite defender and a guy they can turn around offensively, and Garko as a potential everyday first baseman, according to various interviews floating around.

My preferred bench has stayed the same so far this offseason:

vs. RHP

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Byrnes (utility outfielder, pinch runner)
Garko (first baseman, emergency outfielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)/Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)*
Whatever catcher isn’t starting

* Depending on whether Bradley is in left or at DH

vs. LHP

Hannahan (utility infielder)
Langerhans (utility outfielder)
Kotchman (first baseman, pinch hitter)
Griffey (pinch hitter, emergency outfielder)
Whatever catcher isn’t starting

For those of you calling for Sweeney to return to Seattle, where do you see him realistically fitting?

The participants:

Rob T.
Ian, Yo
Ryan Divish
Harrison
dmojr
Mark_Logan
ThePatton
gregrabble
Slurve
mariners121212
bill99350
wazzy
rreilly26
sparky
thorpbrian
Adam the Lord
another random guy who was a last second fill in who I don’t have a username for
and of course yours truley

Be there!  And please be on time.

Last season the Seattle Mariners’ big league Rule 5 pickups didn’t work out as hoped.  Middle infielder Reegie Corona ended up getting shipped back to the New York Yankees and lefty reliever Jose Lugo went back to the Minnesota Twins.  Both did their best in making the 25-man roster and made good enough impressions that GM Jack Zduriencik tried to trade for both of them, but to no avail.

This year they went again with a reliever and again with a Yankee, getting righty Kanekoa Texiera with the 14th pick.

The 24 year old started out his career with three seasons in the Chicago White Sox organization before being traded along with Nick Swisher to the Yankees last offseason.  He spent last year in AA Trenton and put up nice numbers.

Texeira primarily works off of a sinking fastball and a good two-plane slider out of a low 3/4 arm slot.  As you might imagine, he makes his living on inducing groundballs.  For his career he has a groundball percentage of 60.8%.

This obviously appeals to the Mariners as they don’t have that Sean Green-esque groundballer in the ‘pen right now.  Sean White is the closest thing they had last season (after Roy Corcoran imploded, anyway), though his groundball profile is often overstated and his health is in question.

What intrigues me most about Texiera is his split numbers against righties and lefties.  Sidearming sinkerballers are often only good against hitters of the same handedness.  Green, for example, could get grounders against both sides, but couldn’t miss bats against lefties to save his life.  For his big league career he has 7.84 K/9 against the righties but only 4.55 K/9 versus lefties (and he hasn’t been sent out there against good lefties often).  His AAA numbers (going back to 2005) show the same split: 8.04 K/9 versus right, 3.96 K/9 versus left.

But Texeira may be more than a ROOGY.  For his minor league career he has induced 65.6% grounders and produced 9 K/9 against lefties, both marks better than what he’s done against right handers (57.4%/7.64).  As you may expect based on those numbers, his FIP against both sides is about the same (3.20 versus right, 3.23 versus left).

But he’s not a true sidearmer, so maybe his success to date against lefties isn’t that surprising.  Before looking at the numbers I was certainly under the impression that he was basically Sean Green 2.0 and more or less useless against lefties.  Jeff at Lookout Landing was also a little surprised when he wrote about Texiera a few weeks ago, but made sure to note his skepticism when it came to his success against lefties given that he doesn’t have much of a changeup as far as we know (he was said to be trying to add one) and that low minors numbers can be unreliable in terms of projecting at higher levels.

Indeed, having no AAA data makes it tougher, but in 123.2 innings at AA (ie high minors) he has K/9 of 8.2 and a groundball percentage somewhere around (eyeballing) 66% against lefties. For now, I’ve got to think he’ll be okay against both sides of the plate at the big league level.  That isn’t to say the M’s should send him up there against elite lefty sluggers (he is a rookie, afterall).  I’m skeptical until I see exactly how he’s attacking lefties, but I wouldn’t write him off by any means.

The biggest blemish on Texeira’s resume is his walk rate, though it’s not debilitatingly (I don’t know if that’s a word but I’m sticking with it) bad at 3.4 BB/9 for his career (3.8 last year).  For a guy that would be pitching middle innings, that is acceptable even if it’s not ideal, even after adding a few more walks to account for any nibbling taking place against higher level hitters.

Texeira is no sure thing to make the bullpen, but he has a few things going for him.  For one, the M’s could be looking for a groundballer replacement for White in that “we really need a double play” role if he can’t be depended on early in the season for health reasons.  Two, with the recent talk that the Mariners may not be using the long relief bullpen spot for the fifth starter runner up– that is, they may prefer to have guys like Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson and Luke French starting on a regular schedule for Tacoma rather than getting mop up duty here and there at the big league level– that spot could be open for Texeira, who was a multi-inning reliever and spot starter last season.

Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make the team, but I think he has a decent chance.  I can’t speak to how Don Wakamatsu and Jack Zdruriencik see him, but on paper he is about as good as any of the other candidates as far as I can tell.  If he doesn’t make it I hope the M’s can work out a trade for him, though I wouldn’t count on it happening.  A guy that can keep the ball on the ground against lefties and righties both is an invaluable asset in New Yankee Stadium.

And, hey.  It would be cool to have two Hawaiians in the bullpen (Brandon League was raised there).  The gladiator helmets were nice, but tiki torches and a pig on a spit would be kind of fun to see out there.

Last summer GM Jack Zduriencik went out and bought low on Ian Snell. With a couple rough years under his belt after being (perhaps) miscast as an ace and taking major issue with the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, the city of Pittsburgh and the fans therein; Snell requested a minor league assignment to get away from the negativity he saw in his former situation.

Snell took out his frustration on AAA hitters, striking out 47 and allowing just 4 earned runs over 37.1 inning en route to a 0.96 ERA (1.81 FIP).  That 6 game stretch also included a start in which he struck out 17 hitters over 7 frames.  Was Snell rejuvenated?  Was he back to being the young stud he was thought to be back in 2006 and 2007?

Seattle bit, opting to bring him over along with shortstop Jack Wilson and cash in exchange for an assortment of medium grade prospects.

But Snell wasn’t really any better with Seattle than he had been with Pittsburgh the last couple of seasons.

As he was last season in the big leagues, Snell is a back of the rotation arm at very best and someone who is a candidate to be demoted to the bullpen.  But if he can max himself out he’s a #3, and maybe even a #2/#3 tweener.

Seattle started getting Snell back on the right track, and it showed a little bit in his last couple of appearances.  They made two minor changes that were easy to point out in unlocking his left knee and pointing his toes a little more towards home plate.  Those are Little League adjustments.

If Snell can hold onto those changes it’ll be a nice foundation to continue his transformation back to respectable big league starter.  But more work is to be done.

Snell throws a four seam fastball, a changeup, and a few variations of a slider.

The heater is his worst pitch.  It’s flat and given that Snell is only about 5′8 and has a short stride, the perceived velocity is much more manageable for hitters than the official 90+ readings.  It’s effective enough when he locates it and moved it around the zone, but it’s not a pitch he can make mistakes with.

His changeup is decent, but it is so similar to his breaking balls in terms of velocity and sink that he doesn’t fool hitters with it.  When he throws it at the knees it gets good sinking action though.

His breaking balls are interesting.  He throws a tight slider, a loopier slurve thing and then various breaking pitches that slot in between those two.  All of them can be pretty effective, and it is by far his best swing and miss pitch.  Well, it’s his only swing and miss pitch.

Jeff Clarke wrote a ton about Snell over at Seattle Sports Insider last summer, and he had some interesting ideas as to how to get Snell back on track.  One of the things he discussed a few times was Snell’s need to change the hitters’ eye level.  He notes that Snell consistently works at the bottom of the strikezone with his fastball (pitch f/x scatter plots and my own recollection confirm this), which seems good on its own but considering that he doesn’t throw a sinking fastball and that hitters know that when he’s throwing the heat it’s going to be near the knees, he gets pounded.  So he nibbles, which gets him to trouble with the counts.  And when he’s not getting the bottom of the strikezone from the umpire he’s in real trouble.

So moving the fastball up and down the strikezone could help keep him from nibbling and out a trouble a bit, and could help him generate a few more swings and misses with the fastball as well.  It’s great that he can locate at the knees, but only locating at the knees doesn’t do a lot of good, and when a pitcher misses down there there’s a good change he’s missing right in a hitter’s wheelhouse.

Another thing that I think is important for him is to get strike one.  That sounds basic and cliche, but given how ineffective his fastball is it’s important. As you may expect, Snell relies heavily on his fastball whenever he is behind in the count, and that tends to lead to nibbling (balls) and line drives.  If he can just find a way to get to 0-1 counts he’ll be in good shape, as he can move to throwing his slider and changeup for most of the pitches through the end of the at bat.  Easier said than done when you have a crappy fastball, I suppose.

Clarke also suggested that he add another secondary offering that differentiates in speed from this change and slider– a slow curve– and throwing his fastball less often, a la Gil Meche.  I’m on board, but I have a hard time seeing Snell adding a pitch for 2010, especially since we haven’t heard anything about it.  Maybe something to look for in 2011 if 2010 doesn’t go as planned.

Hopefully we get a more consistent Ian Snell in 2010.  We all know the Mariners need it.  Cross your fingers.

No major surprises here.  Baron was only in big league camp because it was negotiated into his contract.  Oliveros was only around to help handle all the extra pitchers, but with six pitchers cut there was less of a need.

Robles hasn’t experienced baseball above A-ball, so he wasn’t expected to land a big league job, and was likely only up so the organization could get a closer look at one of their newest acquisitions and so he could get some big league instruction.  Seddon, Feierabend and Hill are all in the same general mold as the heavy favorites for the fifth rotation spot and possibly last bullpen spot– Jason Vargas, Luke French and Garrett Olson.

I thought Fields might get some more play, but as long as Sean White is healthy he has a stranglehold on that fifth bullpen spot, and right now he’s healthy.  Shell didn’t have a shot to make the team and will provide bullpen depth with Tacoma.  He apparently overhauled his mechanics with Rick Adair this spring.

That leaves the M’s with 54-players in big league camp.  Only 29 more cuts to go!

After making a favorable first impression in his first 157 big league innings between 2007 and 2008, 2009 was supposed to be the year Ryan Rowland-Smith secured his spot in the Seattle Mariners starting rotation for years to come. Of course, that’s not how it went, as he dealt with some elbow discomfort last spring and was bumped back down to AAA Tacoma after one short start.

What was supposed to be to a breather and quick tuneup ended up keeping him in the minor leagues for half the season.  His velocity was down, his command was off, his secondary pitches weren’t sharp and he proved unable to get AAA hitters out with any consistency.

But things started clicking in his last couple of starts with Tacoma and he was brought back up to give Seattle a nice little boost down the stretch.  RRS is now back in the same position he was in last offseason.  He’s written into the rotation as the third or fourth starter and is expected to bring consistency to that back end of the rotation.

What I really like about RRS is that he has a high floor.  He’s pretty solid across the board, so any improvements he make should push him up the ladder, rather than merely helping him gain stability where he is.  From where I sit, RRS is a solid #4 right now and can only move up with each improvement he makes.

RRS has decent command of four pitches that are all at least average right now.  His curveball and changeup in particular have a chance at being above average big league offerings sooner than later, and both have flashed as out pitches the last three seasons.  Working on getting those two offerings as consistently plus pitches is one thing he can do to get himself to being a reliable #3.

His control took a nice step forward last season as he lowered his BB/9 and raised his zone percentage.  If he can shave off a few more walks from his totals that will be another thing to moving him from back of the rotation arm to something much more valuable.

RRS’ strikeout rates will be something to watch.  His 4.86 K/9 with Seattle last season was the lowest of his career (minors and majors).  He’d be in better shape if he could keep that rate in the 5s and ideally up into the 6s.  His stuff visibly plays up out of the bullpen where he can put up K/9s in the 8s and 9s, and while we can’t expect him to keep up that level of effort over multiple innings, it would be nice to see him find some balance and be able to add a few strikeouts.

If RRS can improve the consistency of his change and curve, continue to keep his walks to a minimum and miss a few more bats he’ll be in great shape.  But RRS has his sights set higher– he’s said on radio that he sees no reason why he can’t be a top of the rotation pitcher– and will look for more ways to improve himself.

As far as Spring Training stories go, the ones about a pitcher experimenting with a new pitch aren’t much lower than the ones about a player showing up to camp in the best shape of his life on the fluff-o-meter.  In February, pitchers are trying all kinds of things, and most of the time they’ll scrap it before the regular season starts and go with what got them to the big leagues.

With that said, I’m going to try and not to get too excited about RRS reportedly trying out a cut fastball this spring.  It’s just an experiment and for all we know this could be the last time we hear about it, but I wanted to talk about it because of the two left handed pitchers RRS  mentioned when talking about adding a cutter: Andy Pettitte and Cliff Lee.

Pettitte has mixed in a couple great seasons to go along with years of above average performance and is one of the most storied postseason performers in our lifetime.  Cliff Lee has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons.  And as great as these guys have been, RRS isn’t far off from fitting himself into their template for success.

A fastball that sits in the high 80s and low 90s?  Check.  RRS sits right around 90 MPH.  Quality curveball?  Check.  RRS’ curve isn’t great, but it’s usually a pretty solid yacker and has flashed as a plus pitch.  Quality changeup?  Like the curve, it isn’t great but he has shown the ability to throw it at an above average level.  A slider to mix in on occasion?  RRS doesn’t use it often but his is pretty good.  Pound the strikezone?  RRS isn’t at their level, especially Cliff Lee who has out of this world command, but he is getting better and could be considered a control pitcher already.  Mixes pitches well?  This is more Pettitte than Lee, but RRS throws a lot of offspeed pitches and throws a below average number of fastballs.

Add a cutter and RRS is that same type of pitcher.

Of course, that doesn’t mean he’d be a Cy Young candidate.  A baseball player template offers a wide range of performance levels.  But you never know, and anything he can do to emulate successful pitchers with similar skillsets can’t hurt.

If RRS can develop a good cutter it could help him do three things that would make him a much better pitcher.  One, it would help him neutralize right handed hitters.  Considering that he’s going to face a lot more righties than lefties this is obviously important.  Over the course of his big league career, right handers have swung and miss less and hit the ball in the air much more compared to lefties, as would be expected.  Safeco Field has helped him keep many of those flyballs in the park– which is why GM Jack Zduriencik has stockpiled flyball lefties– but he doesn’t get that same benefit on the road and his splits reflect that.  The cutter will give him another pitch (along with his changeup) to combat right handers, inducing more weak contact and swings and misses.

Two, it will help him keep the ball on the ground a little bit.  Depending on how often he throws the cutter (should he carry this into the regular season, of course)– some mix it in as a secondary pitch and some use it as their primary fastball– he should be able to get a few more groundballs with it, especially against right handers.  Groundballs are great, especially with the defensive infielders Zduriencik has assembled.

Three, he could miss a few more bats with it.  Located correctly, RRS can use it as a swing and miss pitch against both sides of the plate, whether it is tailing away from lefties or busting right handers inside.

This is something I’ll be keeping a close eye on.  If RRS could bring a good cutter to the regular season it could be a nice little boost to him.  Here is some video of RRS working a bullpen in which he works in a few cutters.  You can hear him talking about it with catcher Josh Bard(?), and can see a bit of the cutting action on a few of them.

The downside of the cutter is that it is often associated with injury.  Of course, the case against it is Mariano Rivera, who throws nothing but cutters and has a long and healthy career.  But many believe that the cutter, thrown with a supinated release, can cause elbow trouble.  Considering that RRS has already had some elbow trouble, and specifically trouble with the range of motion in his elbow (perhaps caused by the lengthening of the ulna, a side effect of throwing with a supinated release, as RRS does with his slider and curve), this could be worrisome.

But that’s far too many words for a pitch that we may or may not see come April.  If he does bring it into the regular season I’m sure we’ll take plenty of time to talk about it once we see the results.

RRS is a solid back of the rotation pitcher with a decent chance at being a good #3, which would be great.  Anything to keep RRS in Seattle for a long time would be great, because he’s clearly the coolest Mariner.  He’s a fun loving Aussie that we all just so badly want to be buddies with, and he’s a fiery competitor on the field.  He’s extremely accessible to the fans, sharing his very cool life with us via his blog, Twitter and YouTube.  He offers up a nice piece of trivia as the first player in the game’s history with a hyphenated last name.  He doesn’t suck at baseball.  He’s awesome, and definitely in the running for most popular non-star Seattle Mariner.  Because of all that, we’re all hoping he can continue to be a productive pitcher, stay healthy and hopefully take the next step to be more than a replaceable back end arm.

Go Hyphen!

Edward Paredes is another guy that was added to the 40-man roster this offseason in order to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft pool.  The 23 year old Paredes has only pitched 6 games above A-ball, but could have the skills required to help a big league club sooner than later in a niche role, not unlike Jose Lugo, one of Seattle’s rule 5 picks from last year who almost made the team.

Paredes has shown the ability to get lefties out with a high 80s/low 90s heater and a good two plane slider.  Last season, his first since moving to the bullpen, he had a K/9 of 12.58 and a batting average against of .232 versus lefties in the hitter friendly California League.

If he can continue to get lefties out and tighten up his control as he rises up the organizational ladder his career is made.  The Mariners had been starting him in 2007 and 2008, but he just didn’t have the tools needed to get righties out consistently.  The horizontal movement on his slider makes it a weapon against lefties, but is hittable from the other side of the plate, and he hasn’t been able to develop his changeup.  Now that he’s in the ‘pen he has a chance to be a quick riser and provide the Mariners with something that would be awfully useful– a true LOOGY.

(That said, if he wants to make it in a Don Wakamatsu bullpen he may have to keep working on that changeup.)

The Seattle Mariners drafted Venezuelan born right hander Ricky Orta with the 111th overall pick of the 2006 draft out of the University of Miami (and a pitching staff that also included Mariners’ first base prospect Dennis Raben).  Orta put up fair numbers as a starter for his first two and a half seasons with the Mariners in stops with Everett, Wisconsin and High Desert, but was pushed to the bullpen for all the main reasons starters turn into relievers.  He had some minor injury problems, was walking more than his fair share of hitters and didn’t have much in the way of good secondary offerings.  He took off as a reliever with AA West Tenn however, putting up a 1.94 ERA (2.98 FIP) in 41.2 innings, racking up 41 strikeouts against 18 walks.

The 25 year old Orta is the first player in our series who has yet to see the big leagues.  He was added to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.  As you can probably imagine, information on relievers who have yet to pitch above AA is scarce, but we do know that his fastball ranges from the low to mid 90s and he has a workable but unspectacular slurvey thing.  Because of his control issues and lack of a dynamite second offering, his upside is limited in the ‘pen.  Unless something changes, he probably tops out as a 7th inning arm.

Orta could be considered a darkhorse for one of the last bullpen spots, but given the glut up veteran non-roster guys and higher upside arms such as Joshua Fields and Anthony Varvaro he will likely have to wait for a spot to open up after a couple guys go down with injuries or fail to bring their 2009 performance into 2010.

1.) Michael Pineda

+1 for change in opinion, ranking methods

This has nothing to do with the recent hype coming out of Mariners camp.

The only reason why I had Pineda at number two last time was because of the elbow trouble in conjunction with some whippy throwing mechanics.  I’ve thought a lot about it since the last set of rankings and have come to the conclusion that it’s not quite fair to dock a pitcher after one injury-marred season.

If he establishes a trend of being injury prone in the coming seasons then it’s a different story, but I think I jumped the gun in proclaiming him a major risk.

2.) Dan Cortes

3.) Mauricio Robles

+1 for new information

I liked Robles, but I ranked him fourth a couple months ago citing his poor control and lack of a changeup all while worrying about whether he’d be able to keep his velocity up through the years despite his size.  Now we have a little more information and now I like him a little more.

The changeup is better than I thought.  I’m not quite willing to believe that it’s the plus pitch pitching coach Rick Adair said it is in a recent article (though Ron Shandler apparently calls it his best pitch as well, for what that’s worth), but I believe it at very least has the potential to be a good big league pitch, and it stood out in the short video Geoff Baker posted the other day.  Seems as though last year it was workable but lacked consistency, making the scouting reports, well, inconsistent.  But if it’s going to be a good pitch for him, that helps a lot.  Changeups are important, especially for lefties, and young pitchers often have a hard time developing a feel for them.

As far as the fastball velocity, it seems as though we were able to figure out the reason for some of the inconsistent reports from last year that had him anywhere from 86 to the mid-high 90s.  As mentioned a few posts back, Robles was taught a sinker upon joining the Mariners, which will obviously increase the range of velocity.  This helps him climb my rankings for a couple of reasons.  For one, a sinker is a great addition that will help him keep the ball on the ground and could make him into a better pitcher.  If it’s a good and consistent sinker that is, which is still to be determined.  Secondly, we now realize that the drop in velocity had less to do with him struggling to maintain his fireballer status and more to do with a change in approach.  Hopefully he can work off the sinker and then have a low-mid 90s heat on a straight fastball that he can throw up around the eyes for a few strikeouts.

The sinker and changeup are probably my two favorite pitches.  Robles knows how to work the judges…

4.) Maikel Cleto

5.) Luke French

Previously unranked

French was an afterthought on the last rankings, mostly because I was thinking he spent most of the season in the big leagues rather than just 67.1 innings, and he made such a terrible first impression in Seattle that I barely viewed him as part of Seattle’s future plans anyway.

But French is very much a prospect still, and I think he has more promise than he showed late last season.  As mentioned in a recent post, the dead arm period he reportedly suffered through while in the big leagues to go along with his groundball profile as a minor leaguer make me believe that we could see a different Luke French in 2010.  As Conor noted a couple posts back, French is said to look rejuvenated this spring.

And even if he isn’t able to improve much on last season, he deserves more points than I gave him for being big league ready (same with Doug Fister, who would slot in somewhere around #6-8) (And yes, I view French as a slightly better prospect than Fister, though I like Fister a lot more.  Objectivity!).

That’s all.

As has been brought up around the blogosphere, Lopez fits the theory of a third baseman fairly well.  Decent instincts, better moving laterally than in a straight line, and an arm more than capable of winging the ball across the field.  How well he can charge a bunt has yet to be seen, but we can hardly expect him to be Adrian Beltre in that regard.  However, theory and reality can be two different animals, and so far they are very different indeed.  To be fair, this experiment is only a week old, and has a long ways yet to go before we might see it in a real game.

This apparent unhappiness coupled with Mike Salk’s recent observation that the front office isn’t thrilled with Jose’s weight doesn’t seem to be a good indicator as to his longevity with the organization from here on out.  It’s long been thought that his dead-pull swing from the right side and inability to take walks would make him a better fit in another organization, and that process may finally be hastened if Jose can’t get things together.

Another item working against Jose at third is the Beltre Factor.  After five years of Mariners fans marveling at the wizardry Adrian Beltre put on at the hot corner night after night, even a very good performance by Lopez will look pedestrian at best.  And if he struggles there, at all?  The fans will be all over him like Carlos Silva on a buffet spread.

Other thoughts:

Like Jon, I was very impressed by Robles the other day.  Very eager to see how he develops this year….. The bullpen battles should be interesting this year, with Sean White, Kanekoa Texeira, and a handful of minor leaguers all vying for the same spot…. The Rainiers announced their plans to redesign Cheney Stadium, and the early images are impressive.  Check it out…. The forgotten man in the Mariners’ pitching staff picture seems to be Luke French, but it seems as though he’s quietly having a solid spring so far. Reports have it that his arm looks better in his bullpen sessions than it ever did in his M’s tenure last year, supporting Jon’s “dead arm” theory.  If French winds up in Tacoma, he could wind up in a “first arm up” type of role in the event of an injury.

But reports were all over the place, making it hard to feel confident about any assessment.

An article by Geoff Baker today has got me thinking about Robles again.  Baker’s article is no more than a “class-A lefty makes strong first impression at big league camp” fluff piece, but comments on Robles’ stuff were intriguing.  Robles says his fastball sat around 94 mph last season and could get as high as 97, while Mike Sweeney (who has faced him this spring), Guillermo Quiroz (who has caught him) and Felix Hernandez (who has taken an interest in him) talked about how good his stuff is.  Baker anchored his article by talking up Robles’ changeup, describing it as a nearly unhittable pitch, and quoting pitching coach Rick Adair calling it a plus pitch.  No mention of a curveball at all.

Of course, Baker’s article is not a formal scouting report by any means.  It’s fine for his purposes, but not for trying to measure Robles.  It’s not easy to get objective info on a player by asking his organization, teammates or himself.

Whether those velocity numbers came from Robles glancing at a stadium gun (which would almost certainly render them inaccurate, usually a touch fast) or got them from a coach or scout, they don’t jive with some reports from last season that had his fastball all the way down in the high 80s last season, and the buzz surrounding his changeup certainly didn’t fit anything I’ve read before.

So I asked gal pal Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider if he had heard anything or developed any new opinions since the last time I asked him about Robles, and fortunately he had.  I won’t go into full detail in fear of stepping on his toes with regards to his upcoming Mariners prospect handbook, but he had some interesting things to say.

The biggest thing being that the Mariners had him throwing a sinker once they acquired him.  A sinker is going to be slower than a traditional four seamer, so it may be safe to say that Robles’ normal fastball indeed sits in the low 90s and topping out in the mid 90s, while his sinking fastball may come in in the mid-high 80s.

Robles is short, as mentioned, and combine that with a 3/4 arm slot and you have another guy that struggles to get downward plane on his pitches.  We’ve hit this subject a couple times in recent days in talking about Mark Lowe and Garrett Olson, but both of those guys could help themselves by standing a little taller, an option that Robles doesn’t really have.  But adding some sink to the pitches is the next best thing, if not better, so you have to like this move even if it keeps him from lighting up the radar gun as often as he may have before the adjustments.  Robles saw immediate results too, moving his batted profile from neutral firmly onto the groundball side of things in a small sample with High Desert.  That is surely one of the reasons he was able to put up sparkling numbers in a hitter’s paradise.

As far as the changeup goes, who knows?  Like I said, it wasn’t rated highly in reports I’ve come across, and Jason said today that he thought it was average at best last season and very inconsistent.  So while I’m not going to put a lot of stock into what Seattle’s pitching coach said of his own young player, I’m holding out hope that he has been able to improve it.

There is a shot that it’s been better than I gave it credit for last year.  He has fared well against right handed batters the last couple of years, suggesting that he’s gotten good use out of his changeup.  Then again, it’s hard to know what the numbers are trying to tell you in A-ball.  A good fastball is sometimes all you need to succeed at that level.

In addition to writing that article, Baker also shot this video of Robles pitching in today’s intersquad game, getting utility man Chris Woodward to hit into an out and then striking out top prospects James Jones and Nick Franklin.

He throws all of his pitches as far as I can tell. You can see a couple of really nice changeups to kick off the at bats against Woodward and Franklin.  The curve is obvious, and while he isn’t able to locate any you can see the tight break despite leaving it up, and how it could be a devastating pitch if placed at the knees.

I’m feeling a lot better about Robles now than I did when I ranked the starter prospects just a few months ago.  I would definitely bump him back above Maikel Cleto at the least.

The Mariners have signed 27 year old side-armer Wes Littleton to a minor league deal. In 2006, Littleton fluked his way into a 1.73 ERA in 36.1 major league innings with just 17 K thanks to a .197 BABIP. Since then, Littleton has bounced around the minors and majors, getting smacked around pretty good last year in the Brewers organization. His last decent success was in 2008, where he posted a 3.27 FIP and 8.95 K/9 at AAA in the Rangers organization.

Littleton’s fastball sits in the upper 80s, he’s an extreme ground ball specialist (59.6% MLB career) and offers little upside at this point. The outstanding ground ball percentage is interesting, but he can’t strike out batters at the major league level (4.84 K/9).  He’s unlikely to make any real impact at the major league level – just keeping you posted on what’s going on in the midst of Jon’s epic 40-man roster series. Back to regularly scheduled programming.

When Garrett Olson was acquired alongside Ronny Cedeno from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Aaron Heilman last winter, the majority of the blogosphere saw him as a guy that could feasibly put up similar production levels to Ryan Rowland-Smith and Jarrod Washburn in 2009.  He was not long removed from being a highly regarded prospect for the Baltimore Orioles and pitched better than his numbers would indicate in his first full season in 2008.  All he would have to do was tighten a few things up and he’d become a legitimate back of the rotation option for Seattle with #3/4 upside.

That’s not how it worked out, of course.  His command didn’t get any better and all of a sudden he was giving up a ton of flyballs and home runs.  He gave up 19 homers in just 80.1 innings, giving him the third highest HR/9 in baseball for pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.  This coming after having a neutral batted ball profile throughout his career (big leagues and minors).

As far as I can tell, Olson’s struggles boiled down to poor command of a crappy fastball.

Olson has a good slurve and changeup, but he has to throw the fastball sometimes and he was just getting slaughtered when he did.  Olson needs to improve two things to become a worthwhile big league pitcher.  He needs to follow the Cliff Lee template for success: improved control and a higher release point.

As far as control and command goes, it’s easier said than done.  There is absolutely no telling when or whether or not a guy will improve his accuracy.  Here’s to hoping the coaching staff sees something that could help.

As far as the release point goes, he is about as low to the ground through release than just about anyone you’ll see.  His fastball isn’t dead straight, but between not being able to locate it and having zero downward plane on his pitches, his fastballs are just a tick better than what is thrown in batting practice.

Mark Lowe, as you’ll remember from reading the last post, has a similar problem with downward plane, but his fastball has other qualities that make it tolerable.  I don’t hold off much hope that the coaching staff will do much for Lowe’s low release point, but I am slightly more confident that they’ll do some tinkering with Olson.  He doesn’t have the velocity or movement that Lowe has on his fastball that helps disguise the lack of plane, and as mentioned, Olson looks almost ridiculous with how low he gets to the ground.  I would hope that the coaching staff is able to recognize this inefficiency.

When Olson looked the best last season may have been when he was used as a situational lefty.  When he is able to throw slurve after slurve he’s in decent shape.  There was a memorable moment when he was able to get Joe Mauer to fly out then struck out Justin Morneau.  If starting doesn’t work out Olson might provide some value to the bullpen.

Still, his fastball needs to somehow get better– whether in terms of location or adding another dimension to it (downward plane, getting some sink with a two-seamer)– if he wants to be a useful big leaguer.  It’s just not easy to succeed with a fastball that bad.  In those 80 innings last season his fastball was worth a whopping -15.9 runs according to FanGraphs pitch values, among the worst in the league.

If Olson doesn’t make the big league team out of Spring Training, it will be a good opportunity for Seattle to stick him in Tacoma and try to work out some of the kinks for more than a handful of starts.

(changeup)

Following the 2008 season there was a lot of uncertainty as to who would close games for the Seattle Mariners in 2009.  J.J. Putz was traded to the New York Mets and Brandon Morrow was penciled into the starting rotation.  Some of the early candidates were thought to be Aaron Heilman, Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista and Mark Lowe, for better or worse.

Lowe was my early pick for the job.  The way he burst onto the scene in 2006 was still on my mind and he did a decent job in 2008 despite being limited in how often he was able to throw his best pitch, the slider, following experimental elbow surgery the year before.  Between a blistering fastball, the changeup that improved with forced use the year before and the return of his slider, I thought Lowe might be poised for a breakout season.

As it turned out, Morrow ended up getting the gig initially before coughing it up to David Aardsma.  Even if Morrow, who was brilliant out of the bullpen in 2008, hadn’t decided to head to the bullpen, Lowe probably wouldn’t have gotten the job after a rough Spring Training.

But the inconsistent spring (as I remember it, anyway) didn’t keep him from having a decent enough season.  He became one of Don Wakamatsu’s workhorses, making it into the third most games for an American League reliever with 75 appearances (80 innings), proving his health two years removed from microfracture surgery on his elbow.  His average fastball velocity was measured at 96.3 MPH, which was the highest of his career and the fourth highest among all relievers in 2009.  He also threw his slider more (23.9%) versus 2008 (14.7%).

His health was probably the most important thing for him in 2009, but he also made a notable improvement in his walk rate, lowering it to a career low 3.26 BB/9, a mark he hasn’t matched since his pro debut back in 2004.  He’d be in great shape if he could shave off another 0.5-1 BB/9, but the level he was at last year was tolerable for a 7th inning guy.  Of his 75 games, he avoided giving up free passes in 52 of them.

One discouraging stat from Lowe was his K/9, which saw no change from 2008’s mark of 7.8 K/9.  With full use of his slider, why did his K/9 stagnate?

7.8 K/9 is pretty good, but with Lowe’s stuff you’d think he’d be up there with David Aardsma (10.09) and Brandon League (9.16).  One of the reasons that Lowe isn’t blowing as many hitters away could be that his fastball isn’t as lethal as it seems like it would be.  He throws it in the upper 90s and it has ridiculous tailing action, but because Lowe has such a low release point, his fastball has very little downward plane.  The pitch is coming in fast and moving from side to side, but hitters are too easily able to match their swings to the flight path of the pitch, and are able to make contact with the fastball.  Whether or not it’s good contact or not, it doesn’t really matter in terms of his strikeout rate.  Lowe relies on his fastball, but hitters are able to put it into play before having to face the slider.

If that is indeed the case, there are a couple possible remedies.  One would be to alter his mechanics so that he stood taller through release, giving his pitches more downward plane.  This wouldn’t just make his fastball harder to hit, but when batters did make contact they’d likely hit more grounders.  In the last post we talked about Cliff Lee making a similar move which took him from back of the rotation schlub to one of the top 5 or 10 starters in baseball.

But I don’t expect this to happen.  For one, do the Mariners see this as something that needs to be fixed?  Impossible to know until hearing something about it, but I would guess that they’re not very worried about his low release point right now.  Furthermore, tweaking mechanics around can lead to injury if the pitcher starts throwing at full strength right away, and there could be an adjustment period as well where the pitcher’s command could go out the window.

The other way to help Lowe increase his K-rate and, in my opinion, make him a better pitcher overall would be to incorporate his changeup more in 2010.  It was shaky early, but after being forced to use it all of 2008, it became a legitimately good pitch.  In 2009 he moved away from it, cutting its usage from 20.3% in 2008 to 7% last year.  Obviously he feels most comfortable with his slider, as he should be because it’s a really good one, but if he could designate another 5% of his fastball usage to his changeup (based on last year’s ratios) he could give hitters fits.  Even if he’s just throwing throwaway changeups off the plate away it could be helpful.

But even if nothing changes, Seattle has a solid reliever on their hands in Lowe.  Hopefully he’ll add some consistency to his game, and if he does manage to improve just a little bit he could become a truly dominant shutdown ace in the next couple of seasons.

Cliff Lee, as you know, came storming out of mediocrity to become one of the league’s best starting pitchers at the age of 30 back in 2008.  The story was overplayed, but because it was a good one.  Just one year after a disastrous season that saw him get left off the Cleveland Indians’ postseason roster he won the Cy Young award.

His career has been an odd one.  As a minor leaguer and in his first few stints with Cleveland he was a wild strikeout pitcher.  Then sometime between 2004 and 2005 he took the first steps to becoming the pitcher he is today as he was instructed to use the same release point for all of his pitches.  This cut his walk rate in half, but also cut down on his strikeout rate, which didn’t do him any favors considering he was an extreme flyball pitcher at this point in his career.  He gave up a ton of home runs, including 30 in 2004 and 29 in 2006.  In his first few years with the Indians he was very much a back of the rotation arm who could get blown out at any time.

2007 was an even rougher year for him.  He had an abdominal strain early that he attempted to pitch through with poor results.  His walks were creeping back up and he was getting absolutely smoked.  The Indians finally optioned the 28 year old down to the minor leagues and left him there until rosters expanded in September.  Even then they didn’t start him, and he didn’t join his teammates in the postseason.

Lee had solved one problem, the walks, but at expense to one of his best traits, the strikeouts.  Without the strikeouts, he was unable to survive as a fly ball pitcher.  So he decided not to be a fly ball pitcher anymore.  Simple, right?

Lee showed up in 2008 with a two seamer and a higher arm slot that produced more downward plane on his pitches.  Suddenly Lee became the stud pitcher the Montreal Expos and Cleveland Indians thought he would after pairing the new lower walk totals with a groundball rate that skyrocketed from 32.7% in 2006 to 45.9% in 2008.

2008 was an incredible year for Lee.  223.1 innings, 170 strikeouts, 34 walks, 2.54 ERA (2.83 FIP), and 7.2 WAR on his way to a Cy Young win over Roy Halladay.  He kept it up in 2009, especially after being traded from the out of contention Indians to the World Series contender Philadelphia Phillies, and he was nearly unhittable in the postseason.

And now he’s a Seattle Mariner.

GM Jack Zduriencik wanted Halladay.  Halladay didn’t want Seattle however, and put them on his block list.  But things worked out for okay for Seattle as Phillies GM Ruben Amaro was able to get Halladay, but needed somewhere to dump Lee.  Enter Seattle.

The Mariners sent three prospects to the Phillies for one year of Lee.  They were good prospects for Seattle, but certainly not untouchables.  JC Ramirez was Seattle’s best starting pitching prospect, but that said more about Seattle’s starting pitching depth than it did about Ramirez.  He had a projectable body, a big fastball and a smooth delivery, but he was wild and his secondary pitches are a long ways away.  There is no guarantee that he’ll be a starter, and if he does it will likely take 3 more years at least.  Phillippe Aumont had already been sent to the bullpen, limiting his value to the Mariners (though Philly is going to try him as a starter, degenerative hip be damned).  Tyson Gillies is fun to watch and the fact that he’s legally deaf makes him a nice story, but at the end of the day he’s going to have to overcome some things he may not be able to overcome if he wants to be be anything more than a fourth outfielder.

Would I like to have these guys in the system?  Of course.  But I’ll take one year of Cliff Lee and the compensation draft picks over them without hesitation.

Lee pairs up with Felix Hernandez to form the best lefty-righty 1-2 combination in baseball, and arguably the best 1-2 outright.  Seattle is going to need them to perform like the aces they are given the uncertainty in the back of the rotation.  As has been said elsewhere, the blueprint may be for Seattle to try and win a high percentage of those Hernandez and Lee starts and then just hold on for dear life and hope to play .500 baseball for rotation spots 3, 4 and 5.  Hopefully the team can get a little more out of Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell than is expected, and a healthy Erik Bedard at some point could be a nice boost, but none of those guys can really be counted on in 2010.

Lee could have a really nice year with Seattle.  Considering that we was only a National Leaguer for about 80 innings pitched, I wouldn’t worry about any big drop in production moving back to the big bad American League.  So that’s a plus.  And he’ll have a better defense behind him than he had in Cleveland or Philadelphia.  That can’t hurt.  And he gave up 14 of his 17 homers to right handed hitters last year and 10 of 12 the year before, so given Safeco Field’s spacious left-center and the wind blowing towards right field, it wouldn’t be surprising to see those numbers come down.  As long as Lee maintains his great command, I don’t really see any reason why he wouldn’t continue to be among the league’s best as a Mariner.

Felix and Cliff.  Let’s start a winning streak.

Brandon Morrow’s experience with the Seattle Mariners was an interesting one.

• Drafted in front of hometown favorite and now two time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum.
• Made big league club out of Spring Training the following season as a reliever in a short sighted, job saver move by manager Mike Hargrove and GM Bill Bavasi.
• Converted to a starting pitcher over the winter.  Ended up back in the bullpen for 2008.
• Dominated.  Sent back to the minors to become a started towards the end of the season.
• Almost no hit the Yankees in starting debut.  Struggled after that, but showed flashes of brilliance.
• After injuries slowed him down in Spring Training, GM Jack Zduriencik gives him the choice to join the big league bullpen or the AA rotation.  Morrow picks the bullpen (and bigger paycheck).
• Morrow gets rocked as the closer, decides maybe he should learn to start.  Showed progress in AAA.

Morrow had potential, but thanks to mismanagement by both the Bavasi and Zduriencik front offices he wasn’t able to realize it in his short time with the Mariners.  But he was finally on the right track and because of the his #2/3 potential, many Mariner fans were disappointed when Zduriencik dealt him to the Toronto Blue Jays for a reliever and class-A prospect.  No, Morrow wasn’t exactly a known value for 2010, and has some health issues that could prevent him from starting anyway, but by trading him after what he had been through was definitely selling low.

But whether you like the deal or not, it’s done, so we can look forward to what Seattle received in exchange for their former first round pick.  Welcome to Seattle, Brandon League!

League instantly joins the conversation for Seattle’s best reliever.  While his ERA wasn’t particularly pretty, League had a bit of a breakout season in 2009.  He started walking fewer hitters and added what would become the number one swing and miss pitch in all of baseball, an absolutely terrifying split-change.

(from Lookout Landing)

I could watch this .gif forever.  That is absolutely beautiful.  If you enjoyed watching J.J. Putz fool hitters with his splitter, you’re going to fall in love with League.

Last year he threw this pitch about a third of the time, and his other offering isn’t too shabby either.  He throws a fastball in the mid to high 90s.  Check that, a sinking fastball in the mid to high 90s.

Between those two pitches, League racked up the Ks (9.16 K/9) and ground balls (55.7%).   He got more grounders and fewer walks than both David Aardsma and Mark Lowe last year, making him a nice compliment to his new late inning partners.

If League can keep his walk rates to his 2009 levels, I think he’s the best reliever in Seattle’s bullpen.  Hell, even if League’s walk rates regress back towards career norms, I still might call him the best reliever in the bullpen.  If Aardsma leaves that 9th inning door open just a little bit, look for League to muscle his way into the closer position.

I can’t wait to watch this guy on a regular basis.

Last spring there were two pitchers that made the team that were talked about as major surprises.  One was Chris Jakubauskas, now with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who was indeed came out of nowhere.  The other was Shawn Kelley, who was only 40 innings deep at the AA level at the time.

I was ready for Kelley, however.  He had caught my eye at some point the previous season and was one of the guys I was keeping a close eye on for the 2009 season.   In Decemeber I wrote of Kelley:

AAA Tacoma is the next step up for the 24 year old righty, but he appears to already possess the makings of a major league reliever and could make the big club with a solid Spring Training, assuming he is one of the team’s non-roster invitees.

He was indeed one of over a dozen right handed relievers brought to camp and he stood out enough to make the Opening Day roster.  Beyond that, he was arguably Seattle’s best reliever early in the season before he went down with the oblique tear.

It was only nine games, but in those nine games (11 innings) he struck out 11 while walking just one and giving up just two runs.  Upon returning, Kelley was still good but not nearly as sharp.  He wasn’t able to spot his fastball as well as he had in the first few games and his slider didn’t appear quite as sharp.  July was especially rough as he struck out 6, walked 4 and gave up 3 homers in 8 innings.  He settled back down from August on, and in he had himself a good-not-great Major League debut.  We saw the flashes of brilliance in the beginning, and now he has something to build on.

Kelley gets decent velocity on his fastball, sitting in the low 90s with the ability to dial it up to around 95 on occasion.  He relies on placement to make it a good pitch.  It’s not good enough (in terms of speed and movement) for him to make mistakes with it, and when he does you get guys like Nelson Cruz hitting awe inspiring shots to the bleachers well above the bullpen, as he did against Kelley for the longest home run against the Seattle Mariners in 2009.  But when Kelley is on, he is able to spot that fastball just about anywhere he wants.   The slider is a potential swing and miss pitch and at times looked unhittable.  He also has a throwaway changeup he’ll use to mix things up.

Before we got a glimpse of Kelley I thought that he had closer upside based on some of the scouting reports and his minor league numbers.  Now that I have a better idea of what he’s working with, I’m not sure that’s a realistic outlook for him.  It’s not out of the question, but if he ever finds himself in that role he won’t get it done in the typical blow ‘em away fashion.  He can do it if his fastball command improves in consistency and his slider becomes a legitimate out pitch, though chances are he maxes out as a 7th or 8th inning arm.  We’ll take it, of course.

Kelley was probably my favorite Mariner reliever last year.  I loved his quick ascent, his slider, and the way he pounded the strikezone while the rest of the ‘pen had trouble finding it.  I doubt that he’ll hold that position with me in 2010 given that Brandon League seems like he’s going to be pretty damn fun to watch, but I’m certainly looking forward to Kelley’s sophomore season and hope he can be a stabilizing force as one of the first relievers in the game for the Mariners.

It seems that Seattle’s pictures are out.  We don’t know which ones they’ll pick for the official mugshots, but I’d like to post some of these gems before they’re deleted and lost forever.

From the short bus department:

There are plenty more, and I’m sure more to come.  Cliff Lee kind of looks like a serial killing janitor from Great Britain.