Also, as mentioned yesterday, Dan Cortes will not be going to the Arizona Fall League as originally planned.  Since yesterday’s post focused on the man who will be taking his place, we didn’t really talk about the reasons why Cortes may have been bumped.  Perhaps the Mariners decided he had thrown too many innings this year, or that they were planning on giving him a September callup which wouldn’t allow for much of a break between the end of his season and the start of the Arizona Fall League.  But today we found out, again via Arnold, that Cortes is instead going to be pitching in the Venezuelan winter league to “better prepare him — or at least let the organization gauge how ready he’ll be — for what they hope will be a key bullpen role on the big-league team next season.”

“We want to get Cortes to Latin America in winter ball and get him in front of pressure situations and the fans down there,” [Pedro] Grifol said. “Maybe we can expedite his development down there.”

This makes some sense.  While the Arizona Fall League offers good competition for its pitchers, Venezuela should feature some more experienced hitters, including current big leaguers.  Perhaps more importantly, the atmosphere down there should differ significantly from what he’d find in Arizona.  My understanding is that the players take it very seriously down there, in some cases even more than they do playing in the States.  Perhaps it will be more beneficial for Cortes to get into the 8th or 9th inning down there surrounded by a more rabid crowd with seemingly more on the line than to pitch in the same situation stateside.  At least, that’s the read I get from this decision.

I don’t know how long Kelley will be out, but if he’s slated to start throwing in January it seems like he could be ready to go by the start of the 2011 season.  Meanwhile, Cortes definitely figures into the plans.  Might these two contribute to a successful bullpen unit next season?

Coming into this season we thought the Mariners would have a pretty solid bullpen closing out games.  Kelley would lead into Mark Lowe, Brandon League and David Aardsma which, while occasionally scary, should have allowed the Mariners to shorten games more often than not.  But things didn’t all go to plan.  Kelley and Lowe suffered major injuries, League didn’t feature the death split/change that made him an exciting addition while Aardsma struggled through May and June.  The 2010 Mariner bullpen featured much more Sean White than any of us would like, while no one could have predicted the amount of innings racked up by guys like Brian Sweeney, Jesus Colome, Jamey Wright, Chris Seddon and Garrett Olson, none of whom have been very good.

It’s hard to tell if the Mariners will be better off this year, simply because it’s impossible to know who will be around.  But with the way things sit now there are reasons to be optimistic.

Of those currently at the big league level, Aardsma and League appear to be the only two you would want to carry over.  That may or may not happen, as Aardsma and to a lesser extent League figure to be involved in trade rumors this offseason, but we can probably pencil in at least one of them as the closer.  Behind those two the Mariners have two more stud relief prospects who figure to make the Opening Day roster in Cortes and Josh Lueke, both of whom have been called future closers this season.  There is no reason to think these guys can’t handle 6th or even 7th inning duties right off the bat.  Additionally, Anthony Varvaro could be deemed ready to go and could serve as a suitable option for the middle innings.  If Josh Fields has a strong fall league and Spring Training he could be in the mix as well.  Of course, Kelley figures into the mix as well if he’s healthy.

Not all of those guys will make the squad, of course, but that’s a nice base to draw from.

Aardsma
League
Kelley
Cortes
Lueke
Varvaro
Fields

And there will be plenty of others, as always, competing for jobs, and we know how uncommon it is for someone to come out of nowhere to win a spot.  Just about all the current bullpen guys will be in the mix and have a shot with decent spring performances.  Sweeney and Wright won’t fill the Mariners journeyman quota however, and there’s no telling who will end up in Mariners camp.  And beyond some of the youngins listed above, there are other young talents who could surprise and win a big league spot.  Someone like 2010 draft pick Stephen Pryor, who has 50 strikeouts to 13 walks in 32.1 innings between Everett and Clinton so far this year thanks to a near-100 mph heater; control lefty and 2009 pick Brian Moran, who has 77 strikeouts to just 8 walks over 65.2 impressive innings between Clinton and High Desert; or countless others.

It can always come crashing down, but as for now I don’t hate the way the Mariners are set up in the ‘pen for next season.

Wilhelmsen was originally drafted out of high school by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2002, but after a successful 2003 debut he saw his baseball career fall apart.  He tested positive for marijuana multiple times following that season, and was eventually sent to a treatment facility and suspended for the 2004 season.  Through all of that, Wilhelmsen’s interest in baseball began to fade and he left the game in 2005.

After a few years of bartending and traveling the world, Wilhelmsen got the itch again in 2009.  He cleaned himself up, started getting into shape and won a gig with the Tuscon Toros of the independent Golden League, where he showed flashes of what made him a good pitching prospect as a teenager with the Brewers while getting good results.  The Brewers called him back, but after a pinched nerve in his shoulder ended his season they released him.

Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik, the Director of Scouting with the Brewers when they drafted Wilhelmsen all those years ago, gave him a quick tryout and signed him to a minor league deal in February.  Fast forward to today and Wilhelmsen is pitching very well in the Midwest League, where he was an All Star eight years prior.  Between Arizona, Everett and Clinton Wilhelmsen has thrown 67.1 innings mostly as a starter, producing an ERA of 2.15 with 66 strikeouts to just 18 walks, numbers better than his previous time in the low minors.

Wilhelmsen has said that he was simply to immature to handle pro baseball as a teenager, but this return has shown that the raw ability is still very much present.  The 6’6 Wilhelmsen’s velocity is back as he’s touched 96 MPH with his heater this season.  He is said to have a pretty good breaking ball as well.

Wilhelmsen will soon move to the Arizona Fall League where he will face better competition than he has seen up to this point, and by a pretty good margin.  It could be quite a challenge for Wilhelmsen, but at age 26 the Mariners are putting him on the fast track as he tries to catch up following those lost years.

What can we expect from Wilhelmsen going forward?  That’s hard to say.  While Wilhelmsen didn’t have much of an advantage in field experience this season, there are still reasons to discount the stats because of his age relative to the level, such as his physical maturity, for one.  Can he keep it going as he reaches the higher levels? We’ll see.  Despite the strikeout totals, he doesn’t appear to be missing many bats, getting a lot of called strikeouts against inexperienced hitters.

But for now, that doesn’t really matter.  It’s just nice to see a story like this.  You don’t always get second chances, so it’s nice to see a talented guy straighten himself out and get one.  Hopefully he continues to run with it.

For more backstory, check out Geoff Baker’s article from back in March.

Just like the first time around, we’ll start off by looking at the free agents to be, with their positions and age at the start of the 2011 season in parenthesis:

Jose Lopez (3B, 27) Team option for $4.5M or $250k buyout
Ian Snell (RHP, 29) Team option for $6.75M
Erik Bedard (LHP, 32) Mutual option for $8M with escalators
Josh Bard (C, 33)
Russell Branyan (1B, 35) Mutual option for $5M or $500k buyout
Jamey Wright (RHP, 36)
Chris Woodward (SS, 34)

I think it’s very easy to say at this point that the Mariners will very likely decline the options on Lopez and Snell.  Snell was simply terrible in most of his starts this season before he was demoted to Tacoma, and hasn’t been any better in AAA.  His usefulness as a Major League starting pitcher is probably done and over with at this point, and I’m not sure how good of a reliever Snell could be.

As for Lopez, while his defensive transition to third base has gone better than many, including myself, expected.  His offensive game, however, apparently got left across the diamond at second.  Lopez has never been a great batter, but it was hoped that as he developed that he could be right around average… but this year he has been among the worst hitters in all of baseball.  Currently, he has the second-worst wOBA among all hitters with at least 400 at-bats, ahead of only Baltimore shortstop Cesar Izturis.  With how poorly he fits the team mentality (horrible approach at the plate, little patience) and the ballpark (dead-pull right-handed hitter, which SafeCo Field kills), there’s no real reason to keep Lopez around.

Of the other free agents, it wouldn’t surprise me either way if Bedard either stayed or left.  His option will almost certainly not be picked up, but the team could certainly be interested in having him finish out his rehab with the organization and finally pitching in the majors again in Seattle.

Bard and Branyan are interesting cases.  Bard could certainly stick around as a backup, but if the organization brings in another catcher or wants to use Rob Johnson as Moore’s backup, he has no real role here.  He might be better off heading for another organization that has a clearer need for a veteran backup who can start a fair chunk of games if needed.

Branyan has a mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the team, and with Justin Smoak and Mike Carp bashing away in Tacoma, he doesn’t have a clear role in Seattle.  His massive, high, arching home runs have made him a fan favorite in Seattle, and I was certainly glad to see him back in a Mariner uniform when he was re-acquired, but I’m just not sure how he fits right now.  If the organization still isn’t sold on Carp’s bat, I suppose he could be brought back at the right price (read: “low”) as a DH to help keep fans coming in, but other than that I don’t see much of a role for him.

Woodward could come back on a minor-league deal as AAA depth again, but it wouldn’t pain me any if he didn’t.  If Wright comes back next year, I might have to eat my shirt.  Thankfully, there’s not much of a reason for him to, so my shirt should be safe.

There’s also a number of arbitration cases coming up. I may be a tick off on some of the first-time guys right now, as the Cot’s Contracts service times are all I could find to go on:

Casey Kotchman (1B, 28)
Brandon League (RHP, 28)
David Aardsma (RHP, 29)
Jose Lopez (3B, 27) If team option is declined
Ryan Langerhans (OF, 31)
Josh Wilson (UTIL, 30)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (LHP, 28)
Jason Vargas (LHP,  28)

Aside from his recent mini-surge at the plate, Kotchman has been pretty miserable offensively, posting just a .225/.291/.360 line on the season so far “good” for a .283 wOBA.  His defense has been as stellar as ever, but after making over $3 million this year, you have to wonder if the M’s think he might be too costly to keep as a defensive first baseman on the bench with Justin Smoak likely to take the 1B job next year.  Kotchman is a strong non-tender candidate.

League and Aardsma will definitely be tendered contracts as they are the team’s best two relievers currently in the majors.  Whether they are still on the roster come Spring Training is another matter entirely, however, as back-end relievers are always in demand for trades.  That said, if one is dealt, I doubt the other would be for the sake of the bullpen’s stability.

Lopez is only an arbitration matter if the M’s decline his option, and if they do that they’d certainly non-tender him as well, as his home run totals over his career would serve to jack up his arbitration value.

Langerhans may or may not be tendered a contract.  He’s a great fourth outfielder, as he plays stellar defense and can come up with big hits.  His approach at the plate and left-handed line-drive power play well with the team philosphies and ballpark as well.  That said, he is getting older, and the team may want to use a younger guy who’s a AAAA/fringe major league player in that role.

Wilson will most likely be tendered a contract, as he’s probably the better of their current options for a utility infielder for 2011 (not that that’s saying very much).  If they can find a younger/better option for a reasonable cost, however, it wouldn’t pain my a bit to see him go elsewhere.

Rowland-Smith has had a horrid 2010, but he’s been a pet project for the organization.  His bigger stumbling block, however, is that he is out of options after having to go down to the minors this season.  Expect him to be tendered a contract, but that will far from guarantee him a roster spot unless he can prove that he’s fixed whatever went wrong this year.

Vargas is a dead lock to get a contract tender.  Given the pieces currently in the organization, you could even pencil him in to the #2 slot in the rotation pending other offseason moves.  His 2010 has been incredibly impressive, and with the advances he’s made, he’s building on a nice little future in the league.

There’s a handful of others who could find themselves off the roster come 2011.  Sean White and Garrett Olson are out of options, so if they can’t make the bullpen out of Spring Training, they’d have to be DFA’d and go through waivers.  Brian Sweeney appears to be under team control for next year as per Cot’s Contracts, he only has a little over a year of Major League service time going into 2010.  He could be kept, or he could be non-tendered; it’s frankly a toss-up on that one.

Also, both Milton Bradley and Jack Wilson could be released or traded.  Wilson’s skills fell off a cliff across the board this year, though he did struggle with injuries through the year.  If the M’s pick up another option at shortstop, he’s gone.  Bradley also had his skills seriously erode among his own injury issues, as well as other well-publicized problems earlier in the year.  Honestly, I don’t think Bradley sees January in the M’s organization no matter what, based on a combination of conversations with people close to the team and a personal hunch.

Chone Figgins will certainly have some trade rumors swirling around him in the offseason, but I doubt he gets moved.  Zduriencik won’t just give him away for nothing, however, and his contract will also make him hard to move.

So where does that leave the M’s roster?  Let’s take a look.  Keep in mind, this is only using players currently with the team or on the DL.  Prospects are not being included at the moment, as they are the focus of the next part of this series.

SP1: Felix Hernandez
SP2: Jason Vargas
SP3: Doug Fister
SP4: Erik Bedard? (if healthy)
SP5: Ryan Rowland-Smith/Luke French/?

BP: David Aardsma?
BP: Brandon League?
BP: Brian Sweeney?
BP: Sean White?
BP: ?
BP: ?
BP: ?

C: Adam Moore
1B: ?
2B: ?
SS: Jack Wilson?
3B: Chone Figgins
LF: Michael Saunders
CF: Franklin Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: ?

Bench
C: Rob Johnson?
UTIL: Josh Wilson?
OF: ?
UTIL/OF/bat/hugger/whatever: ?

That’s a LOT of question marks, especially in the bullpen, where every single named player has a not-insignificant chance of being in a different uniform next year for a variety of reasons.  Shawn Kelley was held off the list not because I think he’ll be out of the organization, but because of his recent elbow surgery.  It’s very likely he won’t be ready until late next year at the soonest, and he might even miss the entire 2011 season.

In the next installment of this, I’m going to look at how some of the M’s prospects might fit into the picture for 2011.  Between now and then, I’ll be heading to the USS Mariner/Lookout Landing event at SafeCo Field on Saturday, as well as profiling the current notable prospects in AAA Tacoma.  Until then…

Unfortunately, Pineda showed that he is indeed right at his innings limit, and that there are nothing but good reasons to shut him down for the year, and to do it right now.

The Rainiers were facing the Portland Beavers last night, the AAA affiliate of the San Diego Padres, and they were playing to extend their lead in their division as Salt Lake had lost earlier in the day.  With the Beavers’ middling talent (mostly broken prospects of varying types), this looked like a start that Pineda could breeze through to finish his season on a high note.  Such a result was not to be, however, as the Rainiers would fall 17-12 in what can only be described as an absolute slugfest.

Pineda came out of the gate throwing gas.  His fastball was in it’s typical 94-96 range, occasionally touching 97 on the radar gun.  However, it was arrow-straight tonight with minimal command, and for most of his outing it was all Pineda threw.  He only threw four sliders in the first inning, and three of them were to the last batter of the inning.  He didn’t throw a single changeup until the third inning, and everything was flat and regularly up in the zone.  Frankly, he just looked tired out there, and looked like he was throwing more than he was pitching.

You could still see what makes Pineda such an attractive pitching prospect, however.  The velocity on all of his pitches was still there, and the near identical release points and velocity on his slider and changeup will make life very, very difficult for major league hitters if they try and sit on one of those pitches.  The fastball is a live pitch when Pineda is feeling right, and even when the Portland batters were sitting on it, he was still able to blow past them at times.

At 139 innings pitched after last night, Pineda is right up against the theorized 140 inning mark that the Mariners had him tabbed to get shut down at.  There were some whispers before the game that he might get one more start after this, but last night showed that his shut-down needs to happen now.  I had separate conversations with Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News Tribune and Chris Crawford of Prospect Insider, and both of them agreed completely with that viewpoint.

I also got to see Dan Cortes pitch last night late in the game in relief.  As one of the M’s top relief prospects, I was excited to see him come trotting out of the bullpen… but that excitement didn’t last long.  His fastball has legit velocity, with a number at or above 99 MPH, and none below 96.  That said, Cortes seemed to have very little sense of where it was going, and it flew as straight as straight fastballs come.  The Beavers hitters sat on it his whole outing, and they punished him time and again.  He only threw about three curveballs, which is a ratio that will really, really need to change if Cortes is going to find success at the major-league level.  The curve is good enough to keep hitters off-balance, but not if they can just ignore it to sit on the fastball like last night.

Last night was something of a power show by the Rainiers, drilling seven homers in their loss.  The wind was blowing out for much of the game, but I would say that only two of Tacoma’s homers were wind-aided, and two were actually hit into the teeth of the wind after it changed directions for awhile.  Greg Halman had one of the ones into the wind, drilling one low off the light tower in left field, and Brad Nelson had the other, just missing the same spot Halman hit.  Smoak pulled a ball way out to right field that bounced off the top of the hill out there leading up to Foss High School.

Mike Carp had two homers on the night, one of which was out thanks to the wind.  The other, however, was as legit as homers come.  He got all of a belt-high fastball, and with the aid of the wind at his back, drilled a ball off the fence… of the tennis courts of Foss High, a good 150 feet past the right-field wall and up a hill.  It was an impressive shot, to say the very least.

On a side note, I spent some time with Ryan Divish, Mike Curto, and John McGrath after the game last night, among others.  All three are great, great guys and if you ever have a chance to sit and talk with them, I recommend you not even wait a full heartbeat to do it.

Between the lack of good pitching and the wind, this was a really hard game to accurately scout, which is a shame because there’s some good talent on this Rainiers club right now.  This was most likely my last game covering them this season, but it was a fun year to watch them play all in all.  I’m very much looking forward to watching them play in their new digs in 2011 after Cheney Stadium gets renovated.

Then Sunday’s game got rained out and a double header was scheduled for Monday, so, surprise! You get three games worth of scouting reports in one gigantic post.

First of all, I want to extend a massive amount of thanks to the Everett AquaSox organization (in particular Pat Dillon, Katie Crawford, and Tyler Krochmal) for having me out there and allowing me to use their press box, as well as letting me take in batting practice from down on the field.

Saturday’s game was a loss for the AquaSox, falling 4-2 to the Tri Cities Dust Devils, but the final score was not the story of the game.  Unfortunately, there seems to be some bad blood between these two teams, as two batters from each team were hit by pitches on the night, after the same number the night before.

AquaSox third baseman Kevin Mailloux was hit hard enough in the ribs just below his left shoulder that he ultimately left the game, though he stayed in defensively until his next at-bat.  The benches cleared after LF Kalian Sams was hit a few batters later, though nothing came of it.  AquaSox reliever Eric Thomas would hit two Tri Cities batters a couple of innings later, earning an ejection for himself and for manager Jose Moreno.

The first game of Monday’s double header was a well-pitched affair.  AquaSox left-hander Anthony Fernandez had a rough patch in the first, giving up a two-out, two-run homer to Leonardo Reyes, then walking the next two batters before he settled down and went into cruise control.  Tri Cities started right Josh Mueller, and aside from a well-manufactured run by the AquaSox in the first, he pitched well.  That is, until, he met Kevin Mailloux in the fifth, who sent a belt-high slider the opposite way over the scoreboard in right-center field for a two run homer to put the AquaSox up 3-2.  That would prove to be Mueller’s last pitch in the game.

The bullpen proved to be Everett’s undoing in game one, however, with Taylor Lewis and Bennett Whitmore combining to give up seven runs in the sixth inning.  Lewis couldn’t throw a strike to save his life, walking four batters and giving up two singles and a double.  Whitmore came in with the bases loaded and two out, then gave up a grand slam on his second pitch of the night.  Ouch.  Catcher Jimmy Jacquot would get the Sox a bit closer with a solo shot in the sixth and they’d manufacture another run in the seventh, but that would be all for Everett in the first tilt of the night.

Game two would be started by righty Austin Hudson, who struggled with command issues early in his start and had it bite him a little, giving up runs in the second and fourth innings, and fighting with baserunners in each of his four innings.  Hudson had a very hard time with falling behind hitters and laboring through counts, and it cost him badly.  Chris Kessinger relieved Hudson in the fifth, and aside from getting punished on one hanging curve in the top of the seventh for a solo homer, he had a nice, solid outing.

In a moment of minor league baseball hilarity, the Dust Devils’ starter for game two, Tyler Trice, was pulled after two innings… and no one in the press box, not even the Devils’ radio man, knew who he was.  All we knew was that he was wearing #5, and there was no #5 on the printed roster, nor on the online roster (though there were several pitchers listed without a number).  Someone was sent down to the Devils’ dugout and the pitcher was identified as Sean Jarrett (one of the un-numbered pitchers online), but it certainly provided some levity for the tired bunch of us in the box.  That the same thing would happen again two innings later when “#51″ (ultimately identified as Chad Baker) ran in from the bullpen only made us laugh harder, wondering if the Tri Cities manager was pulling fans out of the stands to pitch.

Now then, on to the scouting notes!

Steve Baron was the focus of my attention in Saturday’s game, being as he was the team’s supplementary first round pick in 2009 and I haven’t gotten to see him for myself yet.  He was drafted out of high school in large part because of his defensive skills behind the plate, and at the time his bat was considered to be a “work in progress”.  Some reports I’d seen and conversations I’d had made it seem as though that progress might not be going so well, but I wanted to see for myself before I made any judgements.

Well, the reports and conversations were dead-on accurate.  Watching Baron in both BP and in game, I came away very underwhelmed with him when he has a bat in his hands.  His swing is stiff and awkward, borne from a too-stiff front leg and an odd start to his swing.  Instead of striding somewhat into the pitch, Baron sort of just drives his leg further into the ground, which stiffens his entire body and keeps him from rotating all the way through his swing.

Baron’s arm action on his swing is also not conducive to much success, with an immediate hitch in it and looking almost as though he starts his swing partway through.  He also gets very little arm extension, leaving him vulnerable to pitches outside, and his overall stiffness makes it hard for him to adjust to pitches inside.  Baron’s swing might eventually be fixable, but it will take a lot of work and a lot of patience.

Defensively, however, Baron shows a lot of promise.  He moves fluidly behind the plate, getting out in front of balls that many younger catchers normally can’t get to.  He also flashes a strong arm; at one point in Saturday’s game, he threw to first on two straight pitches to try and catch a leaning runner, and both were incredibly close plays.  On the next pitch, the runner took off with a nice jump, and Baron still gunned him down with room to spare.  He also does well on plays at the plate, blocking the plate out well, though he shies away from contact somewhat, though he needs to work on receiving throws from the outfield.

I came back out Monday to watch left-handed pitcher Anthony Fernandez, and he started the first game of the night.  He got off to a rough start, giving up a two run homer in the first followed by two straight walks, but his overall stuff was fairly impressive.  His best pitches are a power fastball that tends to sit up in the zone in the mid-90′s, and a hard slider in the upper 80′s that has a big, sweeping break that right-handed hitters have a hard time handling.  Fernandez compliments those two pitches with a nice changeup in the lower 80′s out of the same release point as is fastball, as well as a curveball in the upper 70′s that stays in on lefthanders with a downwards break.

Fernandez’s control was imprecise at times, but overall it wasn’t bad.  He did have a problem with his command after giving up a two-run homer in the first off a good changeup down in the zone, ultimately walking each of the next two batters.  He settled down better after that, and the Tri Cities batters had a hard time getting a good hold of his pitches, especially in the third inning.

One thing that I liked seeing with Fernandez was that he mixed his pitches very well for such a young pitcher.  Most guys with a fastball like his will really lean on that pitch, especially this far down in the minors where most hitters can’t handle a fastball like that well.  Fernandez, however, will throw all four of his pitches at any time and in any count.  That’s not common and great to see at this stage.

Overall, I came away very impressed with Fernandez.  I’d hesitate to call him a top prospect for the M’s just yet because this is just short-season ball, but he is certainly someone to keep an eye on over the next couple of years.  If his stuff stays as legit as it looks right now, he could advance quickly, especially if his command improves as he ages and strengthens (Fernandez is currently just 20).

Also of note was Kevin Rivers.  Rivers has been the AquaSox best hitter on the season so far, putting up a .316/.443/.534 batting line with nine homers in 240 PAs.  He’s a little bit old for the level at 22 (in fact, his birthday is today, so happy birthday Kevin!), and that line is fairly inflated thanks to a .391 BABIP, but Rivers does show tools and skills that would make one think that he could have some longer-term success.

Rivers has a smooth, level swing that lets him hit easy line drives, and can hit the ball to all fields.  He doesn’t have huge power, but he’s a guy who can probably wrack up doubles and have several of them turn into homers.  In the outfield, Rivers tracks balls down well, shows good speed, and has a fairly good arm, spending most of his time in right field and flashing a good arm. Rivers got a nice gundown at second base in the first game Monday night, nailing a runner trying to stretch out a single.  He needs some work on the basepaths, though, as his jumps and instincts on when to try to steal are somewhat lacking.  Overall, Rivers probably will top out as a AAAA player/emergency fill-in outfielder, but he should be worth keeping an eye on.

Evan Sharpley has caught my eye in the past, as his power potential is prodigious, and his athleticism could make him a decent outfielder or a good first baseman.  This weekend left me feeling fairly down on his stock, however.  His defense at first is still developing since he had been a football player first until the M’s drafted him last summer, but it has taken a step back since I saw him last month.  He’s still very stiff defensively, and his positioning around the bag, especially when holding a runner, leaves something to be desired.

During at bats, Sharpley’s plate discipline also seems to have backslid some as well, as he’s now hacking at pitches he was taking a month ago.  The power is legit; during BP he was the only batter hitting the ball out to all fields, and hit one ball clear over the 80-feet tall netting past the outfield wall in right-center field.  The swing that generates it, though, is an all-or-nothing uppercut that leaves him horrifically vulnerable to breaking pitches.

One prospect that I get a lot of questions on is Kevin Mailloux.  He’s become something of a fan favorite in Everett, and has turned in a nice season all in all.  However, he’s a bit old for the level (he turned 24 in March) and his power numbers are definitely benefiting from the friendly confines of Everett Memorial Stadium.  That said, this is just his second season of pro ball after coming out of college, and his swing and approach both look much better than video of him I’ve seen from the past.  He has good contact skills that let him work the count and expand the zone, and while he doesn’t have prodigious homer power, he has a line drive swing that should let him rack up doubles in higher levels.

Defensively, Mailloux has some shortcomings.  He originally came up as a second baseman, but switched to third base coming into the year.  He’s still fairly stiff there, especially trying to move to his right, but he does look much better from when I saw him earlier in the year, and his throws across the diamond have gotten much stronger and more certain.  At the moment I’d only peg him as an organizational guy, but he could serve as a corner utility man in the Mark DeRosa mold in the upper minors and possibly as an emergency fill in in the majors if things work out well for him.

Of course, no post on the AquaSox is complete without Twitter fan favorite Willy Kesler.  Kesler is a fun guy who’s been pitching out of the Sox’s bullpen since he was picked up in the 18th round of the 2010 draft, and has turned in a solid season for Everett so far.  He was a starter in college, and his pitching stuff suggests to me that he could continue to do so in the minors next year if the Mariners so choose.  Kesler brings a fastball up in  the upper eighties with pretty fair command, a big curve in the upper 70′s, and a hammering changeup in the lower 80′s.  Of the three of those, his most effective pitch was probably the curveball, as the Tri Cities hitters couldn’t seem to come to grips with it at all.  I’m not quite sure what his ceiling is just yet as I’ve only seen him the once, but I did like what I see, so I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on Kesler over the next couple of years.

Overall, it was a fun, if tiring, weekend of baseball.  Monday night’s doubleheader was the first I’ve covered, and actually the first I’ve attended in person as well.  They are a very, very different experience, and certainly take a different approach, especially when you get into the middle of the second game and energy starts to flag throughout the ballpark.  Still, I’ve been having a lot of fun covering minor league games these past couple of months for you guys, and I hope to get to a couple more by the time the minor league seasons end.

Brown  has been a manager since 1999, getting his start with the Amarillo Dillas, an independent league team.  He had actually pitched for the same team for four years prior after failing to ever make the Major Leagues (he was drafted by Toronto in the 29th round of the 1989 draft).  He managed in Amarillo, where he still lives today, for two years before the Mariners hired him to coach in their minor league system.  First assigned as the manager of the single-A San Bernardino Stampede in 2001, he took his team to the playoffs for two straight years before the M’s changed their affiliates.  Re-tasked to manage the low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in 2003, Brown’s team again earned a playoff spot after finishing the first half of their season with the best record in their league, and finishing the year just over .500 on a whole.

In 2004, Brown was promoted to lead the high-A Inland Empire club, and would once again earn a playoff berth (noticing a pattern yet?).  In fact, Brown earned a distinction that year as the only manager in the whole of the Mariner organization to do so.  He would stay with Inland Empire for one more season before moving onwards and upwards to AA Stan Antonio to manager the Missions in what would be a miserable season across the M’s system as the system had been slowly gutted over the years, and the new talent coming in generally wasn’t up to the same snuff as the prospects they were replacing.

That didn’t hold Brown back, however, as the organization was still impressed enough with him to assign him to the Tacoma Rainiers starting in 2007, where he lead some impressive teams up until his summons to be the interim manager in Seattle just over a week and a half ago.  Probably the highlight of Brown’s tenure with the Rainiers was leading the club to a dramatic late season surge that lead to a division championship and post-season birth in 2009, with it literally coming down to the final inning of the final game before before their playoff spot was secured.

All in all, Brown has had a very solid resume.  For those who just care about results, he has won virtually everywhere he’s gone, which is impressive given the ever-shifting talent landscape of minor league baseball, where a team can look completely different from one month to the next.  For people who are concerned with chemistry, Brown is also your man.  His clubhouses have always been described as loose environments with well-bonded team-mates, and notable issues have been few and far between.

Tactically, he’s always shown a remarkable ability to shift gears to fit whatever fits his current roster best, and is very flexible with his lineups depending on the pitcher and team being faced.  Those are more important traits for a minor league manager than one in the majors, but they are certainly not without merit at the highest level of the game.  Brown has also coached a remarkably large number of the M’s top prospects, so his familiarity with the players, especially their strengths and weaknesses, can only serve to help him.

The biggest drawback with Brown is one of experience at the highest level.  Yes, he’s been a manager for over ten years, and yes, he’s been at AAA since 2007, but until he was named the interim manager of the Mariners, he hadn’t spent one day in the major leagues, as a player or otherwise.  Not one.  How important that factor is to how well Brown can succeed is one of some debate; there have certainly been other managers who succeeded in spite of never being a major league player.  Jim Leyland, Fredi Gonzalez, and Joe Maddon are all managers that have had varying amounts of success despite never having been on a big-league roster.  It is, however, certainly something to at least think about as the process goes on.

The argument could also be made that because of Brown’s significant experience as a player-developing manager, his value would be higher to the organization by returning to Tacoma in 2011.  I’m not sure how much merit such an argument holds, but it’s certainly something worth considering.

Most importantly at the moment, however, is to not put too much stock into Brown winning three series to start his career as a major league manager.  Three series is a ridiculously tiny sample size, especially for something as subjective as managerial performance.  If you want to judge Brown’s managerial candidacy, to it based on the merits of his career prior to his promotion, not based on what he does as the interim manager.  That doesn’t mean that you should totally ignore what he does the rest of the year, but it shouldn’t be at the top of your list by a long shot.

While Brown certainly seems to, at least on the surface, be a viable candidate to manage the M’s in 2011 and beyond, there have been a few others identified as potential candidates.  Let’s take a quick moment and look at some of them:

• Bobby Valentine has been at the top of most people’s lists since Don Wakamatsu was fired.  Believed to be a candidate for the Mariners’ job before Wak was originally hired, Valentine spent the last several years managing the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Japanese League to fairly significant success.  He’s had two prior stints as an MLB manager, leading the New York Mets from 1996 to 2002, and the Texas Rangers from 1985-1992.  He had mixed success in those days, taking the Mets to the World Series in 2000 before falling to the Yankees among several other playoff berths, but also lead several teams that melted down and at times had contentious relations with his front offices, most notably while with the Mets.  Valentine’s Japanese experience certainly should give him a leg up with the primarily Japanese ownership group in Seattle (if that even matters in the end), and the fact that he actually ended his playing career as a Mariner in 1979 is also something that probably won’t hurt him.
• Fredi Gonzalez is another name that gets bandied about some, and could be a very interesting candidate.  His tenure with the Marlins was certainly a rocky one at times, but you certainly cannot deny that he got a lot more out of that club than anyone expected him to.  Given that the M’s are largely expected to be in some sort of rebuilding phase in 2011, that certainly makes him an attractive target.  However, Gonzalez is commonly being attached to the Atlanta Braves as Bobby Cox’s successor after this season, so it’s debatable whether or not the M’s would even have a shot at him.
• Buried in the middle of this story is an interesting name starting to be attached to the M’s search.  Ted Simmons is currently the bench coach of the San Diego Padres, and only has three seasons of coaching experience despite being 61 years old, but has a long history of working with Jack Zduriencik with both the Pirates and Brewers.  He is also apparently being talked about as a major part of why the Padres have met with so much more success than anyone had anticipated they could.  I don’t know much about Simmons myself, but it certainly sounds as though his is a name to keep tucked away as this process rolls on.

The Mariners were certainly involved in the action of the day, signing second-round draft pick Marcus Littlewood, a switch-hitting prep shortstop from Utah, to a bonus of $900,000.  Jason Churchill from Prospect Insider loves the kid, and apparently so does M’s scouting director Tom McNamara.  Most think that he’s a little big and stiff to stick at SS, and what video I’ve seen makes me tend to think the same, but I’d like to see the Mariners leave him there until he proves he can’t play the position.  Offensively, Littlewood is a guy who shows fairly decent contact skills and who should develop some power.  His right handed swing is much better than his left handed swing right now, but that’s to be expected given that he’s a natural righty and has only been switch-hitting for a couple of years now.  All in all, his tools across the board are very solid.  Nothing stands out as a plus tool, but he has no real weakness, either.  Littlewood’s upside isn’t the highest, but his chance to reach it is much higher than most prospects.  His contract will officially start in 2011, meaning he cannot play in fall leagues, but will still be eligible for fall instructionals.

The M’s third round pick did not sign last night, however.  Prep right-handed pitcher Ryne Stanek was one of the more highly touted prospects of Seattle’s draft class, as his stuff had rather more polish than most would expect from such a young pitcher, and also seemed to have a fair amount of room to improve as well.  He was the “safer” high end pick that was matched with the riskier move of grabbing Taijuan Walker in the sandwich round, who has a much higher upside but is also very raw.  That said, Stanek also had a commitment to the University of Arkansas that was classified as being fairly strong leading up to the draft, which is a major part of why he was available in the third, as pitchers like him often go somewhere late in the first round.  He was asking for first-round money in order to sign, which the Mariners obviously felt he was not worth right now, so they called his bluff and walked away.  Having Stanek would have been nice, but with all the arms Jack Zduriencik and company have been acquiring, he’s hardly necessary at this point.

• The Mariners also signed 16th round pick Jordan Shipers back on Friday.  Shipers, a left-handed prep pitcher, signed for $800,000, which needless to say was well above the “recommendation” for his slot.  That extra money no doubt comes in large part from being committed to play for Missouri State University.  He’s a slight pitcher at this stage (5’10″ and 170lbs), but is still young and should grow and fill out some over the next few years.  His fastball currently sits in the upper 80′s and is commanded well for a young pitcher, and his slider is described as “flashing as a plus pitch”.  His velocity will almost certainly increase as he matures and strengthens.
• A quick note on a 2010 draft pick who actually signed quickly: RHP Stephen Pryor has been dominant out of the bullpen.  In 25 2/3 innings between short-season Everett and low-A Clinton, Pryor has put up a ridiculous 12.97 K/9, and is walking just 2.81 batters per nine innings.  He’s gotten a little roughed up in Clinton, but those ratios are actually better at the higher level (albeit in a tiny, 6 2/3 inning sample), and his insane .500 BABIP against would indicate that his other results there have been mostly bad luck.  He’s certainly another bright piece for the future of our bullpen, which was already looking shiny with Josh Lueke and Dan Cortes around.

The Rainiers wound up winning in extra-inning walkoff fashion on a Mike Carp three run blast that cleared the right-field wall with plenty of room to spare.  Taking somewhat away from that great moment was something very scary that occurred in the at-bat immediately preceding Carp’s; David Winfree got hit in the head by a 91 MPH fastball.  He tried to duck down and away from it, but couldn’t get away in time and took the ball off his helmet near the top of the left side of his head.  He went down fast and hard, but sat up right away and was immediately talking to manager Jose Castro and the trainer as they sprinted over to him.  Winfree managed to get back up fairly quickly, maybe thirty seconds after getting hit, and would stay in the game to run the bases.  Whether or not he would have been able to stay in to play right field later wound up being a moot point, as Carp took a belt-high fastball way out to right for the winner.

That Winfree was able to take a ball off the head like that, and then get up and back in the game so quickly, is a real testament to the new style of batting helmets that minor league baseball players have to wear these days.  Yes, they look a little silly (though not near as bad as the first version of them), but the improved protection they offer is far, far superior to the “normal” batting helmets that most Major League players are still wearing.  The difference between the two is like night and day, and I honestly believe that if Winfree was wearing an old-style helmet when he got hit, he wouldn’t have been up nearly as quickly as he was, especially given where he got hit.

Now then, on to the scouting notes, eh?First of all, I have some decent video for a change, courtesy of a Flip Mino I acquired recently.  You’ll have to excuse the slight fuzziness, as the netting behind home played played merry hob with the auto-focus.

Left-hander Mauricio Robles was the focus of my attention this afternoon.  Acquired from the Tigers as part of the Jarrod Washburn trade last year, Robles is not a big man (listed at 5’10″, 205 lbs), but gets his fastball up there in the mid-90s, and has a nice changeup and a decent curve.  He came out hard, with his fastball clocking in at 93-95 MPH with a couple at 96 and 97 in the first.  The changeup was registering around 85, and the one curveball I noticed was at 77.

The Round Rock Express hitters didn’t stand a chance against Robles early.  The first batter of the game got a bloop single over the glove of shortstop Luis Dominguez, but after that it was all Robles.  His command was a little loose, especially on the fastball, but most everything was down, and the hitters had no idea what to do with it.  The fastball had a slight tailing action to Robles’ glove side (meaning away from left-handed batters and into righties) that was keeping batters from making solid contact.  The change was probably Robles’ better pitch, as it looked identical to the fastball coming out of his hand, and he was spotting it almost perfectly.  The curve didn’t make many appearances today, but it did look like a fairly decent pitch when Robles did use it, and he got a couple grounders out of it.

Robles absolutely coasted through the first four frames, striking out six Express batters while only giving up one hit and one walk.  Things absolutely fell to pieces in the fifth, however.  His command was noticeably shakier right out of the gate, and his velocity was down about 3 MPH on all of his pitches.  In fact, his command quickly went from “noticeably shakier” to “completely gone”.  Robles would give up a hit and two walks to load the bases, then walked in a runner.  Then came the inevitable: a fastball stayed up to left fielder Colin DeLome, and he crushed it to right for a grand slam.  Robles would escape the inning without further damage, but he was definitely not the same pitcher in the fifth as he was through the first four.

So what happened?  Robles’ loss of velocity and control really hurt him, and there have been reports that he does tend to fade like that at times as he goes deeper into games.  He’s still just 21, so some strength and duration issues can be expected, especially since he’s a smaller pitcher with harder stuff.  Robles also got a little dinged up getting the put out in a run-down in the fourth inning.  He seemed fine, but the trainer saw something that made him come running out right away, and manager Jose Castro was right on his heels.  That coupled with the extra time for the Rainiers’ offense manufacturing three runs in the bottom of the frame could certainly have effected Robles heading into the fifth.

One bad inning aside, though, Robles had a very strong inning, winding up with eight strikeouts to three walks, plus three hits, three air outs (pop-ups, fly balls, and line drives), and four outs on the ground over five innings.  He threw 106 pitches in total, 68 of which were strikes, though the ratio was certainly much better before the fifth.  Definitely a promising start to Robles’ AAA career.  From here, I mostly want to see if he can build up his endurance a bit and stick in the rotation, because his stuff could let him be quite good there as long as he can maintain through his outings.

I won’t use up a ton of space on first baseman Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley today.  Both were their usual selves, and put in some good at bats.  Ackley went 0-5, but made good contact several times, he just made good contact right at defenders.  Smoak had two hard hit singles, and a jolt in the bottom of the 8th that got the crowd excited before the wind caught it and killed it in center field.

Defensively, Ackley got two chances tonight, both on plays far to his left.  The first was on a slow dribbler deep in the hole between second and first that Ackley decided to slide for, but the ball booted off the heel of his glove.  The official scorer awarded the batter with a hit, presumably because of how far Ackley had to go to get to it, but it easily could have been  an error.  The second play wasn’t quite as far away and had more of a hop to it, so he was able to field it very smoothly and make the throw on the run to get the runner out easily.  Ackley’s adjustment to second is definitely still progressing, but there’s no real sign that he can’t stick there yet.  We just have to be patient with the occasional growing pains.

One other thing: Mike Carp caught my eye a bit today.  As I’ve noted in the past, his swing is leaps and bounds better than it was a year ago, and every time he made contact today it was very sharp contact with a lot of “oompf” behind it.  He hit the game winning bomb in the 10th, which if I had to guess probably came close to 400 feet once it landed in the brush out there.  Carp also drilled an RBI double to deep center in the fourth that had a great chance to go out if not for the wind blowing in, and hitting one out to center in Cheney is no easy feat.  Tiny sample size, sure, but Carp has had days like this several times when I’ve seen him this year, so the signs are encouraging that he can still develop into a useful hitter.

Also, I’ve come to loathe watching Greg Halman from a scouting perspective.  He’ll work one nice at-bat where he takes a couple close pitches and shows good swings, then the next at bat he’ll flail at three straight junk pitches.  He did hit a gorgeous, opposite-field homer to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, but still.  He’s easily the most frustrating player I’ve had the “privilege” of watching.

Next week, I’ll be heading up to Everett to catch the AquaSox.  I’m getting to go as a member of the media again, so that means I’ll be able to watch BP from the field again.  I’ll try to get you guys some video of that, and as always, my notes and thoughts on the players.

Second baseman Dustin Ackley headlines the bunch.  You’ll remember Ackley got his first taste of pro ball in the AFL last season, showing well offensively while playing center field.  This time around he’ll continue working on his second base defense.  Right handed reliever Joshua Fields will also join Ackley for the second straight year as he attempts to make up ground after spending much of this season on the disabled list.  When healthy, Fields has been better than he was in his 2009 debut, and could see the big leagues next season.

Beyond Fields, three more hard throwing right handers will join the Javelinas pitching staff in Dan Cortes, Josh Lueke and Maikel Cleto.  Cortes, who participated in the 2008 AFL while with the Royals, will continue honing his craft as a reliever as he rides on the fast track to the big leagues.  Lueke shouldn’t have much to prove, to the point where I almost wonder if he’s being showcased.  You’ll recall the reports about Chuck Armstrong being a little upset about the acquisition of Lueke given his past, so one may wonder if he’ll have him shipped off sooner than later.  Alternatively, I could just be paranoid and making much ado about nothing.  The AFL is usually pitching starved given that most guys will be shut down, so they take all the arms they can get.  Cleto will be the most challenged as he has yet to make it about class-A High Desert.  Cleto has missed a few starts this year and will have some innings to burn through in the AFL.

Matt Mangini and Nate Tenbrink will also be heading down there and making their first appearances in the league.  Mangini has been enjoying a breakout season offensively as the Tacoma Rainiers third baseman, putting the pressure on the Mariners to try and figure out if they have a spot for him in 2011 or 2012.  Tenbrink is also enjoying a breakout year between High Desert and AA West Tennessee, and will use the AFL to try and prove that he’s a prospect going forward.

Last season the Mariners sent four to the league: Ackley, Fields, 1B/OF Joe Dunigan and right hander Anthony Varvaro.  Dunigan was coming off a big season in High Desert, but proved this year that he couldn’t make it in a higher level and in a more difficult ballpark.  Varvaro is having a decent season for West Tenn and Tacoma out of the bullpen.

First, and most importantly, the Don Wakamatsu firing.  Yes, he had his issues.  His bullpen management, his lineup cards, and his curious love of bunting made me want to pull my hair out on more than a few occasions.  Yes, this season has been an outright disaster, and parts of the clubhouse could definitely be described as anti-Wakamatsu near the end (especially those in the pro-Griffey camp, as Dave Cameron at USS Mariner described).  With all that said, did he really deserve to get fired at this point in the season?

I don’t think so.

This season has been an outright disaster because it turned into a shining example of the worst case scenario.  Career-worst seasons were turned in by Ken Griffey, Jr., Chone Figgins, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Jose Lopez, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Ian Snell.  No team, no matter how well crafted, can survive seven regular contributors all doing that at the same time.  No matter how good or how poor a manager Wakamatsu really is, he had no chance this year.  If you want to make a change, do it after the season to avoid the media circus, and certainly try to time it better so you don’t fire your Japanese-American manager on Japanese Heritage Night.

As for the clubhouse issues, Dave Cameron laid things out well in the post I linked to above.  There’s also the interview Ryan Divish had with Mike Sweeney about a week back that had this gem of a quote:

And finally, [Sweeney] was aware of the controversy surrounding manager Don Wakamatsu and offered these thoughts …

Don, he’s the same manager he was last year. Last year we had a great team, great chemistry, great clubhouse. This year we haven’t had that. Don has been the same guy.

The same people who were praising Wak last year are the same ones that are slinging mud at him now. That’s unfair. I support him.

If there’s a better piece of proof out there that winning breeds good clubhouse chemistry, not “good chemistry guys”, I don’t know what it is.

As to the other three that got fired, losing bench coach Ty Van Burkleo and performance coach Steve Hecht doesn’t bother me that much in the context of the manager that hired them getting tossed out with the trash.  I honestly don’t know anything about Van Burkleo other than his name and that he’s worked with Wak before.  He’s been such a non-entity as the team’s bench coach that I’m not even sure I could pick him out of a lineup.  As for Hecht… well, his job title doomed him as much as his association with Wak.

When it comes to Rick Adair’s firing, I have definite issues there.  Time and again, Mariner pitchers have credited him with helping improve their games since his hiring.  While that’s not very unusual to hear, I think it holds a bit more weight in this case.  In all my time going to ballparks, I have never seen a pitching coach spend more time talking to and working with all of his pitchers, before, during, and after games.  It’s not unusual at all for Adair to use a starter’s pregame warmup in the bullpen as an opportunity for a sort of mini-workshop for two or three other pitchers that he’ll take with him to the ‘pen.  This might be the loss that’s felt most keenly for the team, at least for the pitchers.

Another thing of note that came out of this debacle is that the press conference that general manager Jack Zduriencik held was the first time I’ve honestly felt underwhelmed and even disappointed with Zduriencik.  I felt that this was the first time that he didn’t seem to be open and honest with the media, and by extension the fan base, and at several times seemed almost condescending, and evasive at other times.  I’ve heard and seen sentiments from several members of the press corps that would seem to back up those feelings.

I also received this interesting tidbit from a source close to the team that has requested to stay anonymous.  Contrary to the popular belief that the firing of Wak and company was ordered by Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong, the “bosses” of Zduriencik in the M’s food chain, my source tells me that Jack was “feeling the heat” of this disaster season, and went to Lincoln and Armstrong and asked if firing Wak was what they wanted him to do.  They told Zduriencik that such a move was “his call”, and he then proceeded to do so, as we all now know.

The source also went on to say that he feels that Lincoln and Armstrong are letting Zduriencik “drive this into the ground” and “hang himself” by sitting back and saying that they’ve given him full control.  Given previous experiences with those two, such an approach would not surprise me in the least.  Both are very good at pointing negative attention, and thus the blame, away from themselves.

Take all that as you will, but given the almost universal assumption that this was a “Chuck and Howie” move and that Zduriencik was covering for them, this is something I felt needed to be put out there, to give another point of view if nothing else.

The other item of note lately is the Jack Wilson injury.  The initial report was rather comedic in nature, given that he was reported to have broken a bone in his hand slipping and falling in the bathroom.  Given the nature of the injury, breaking the bone in your hand that leads to your pinkie, most people have jumped to the conclusion that the bathroom story is just a cover, and that Wilson actually punched something wrong.

While that certainly is plausible, given that’s how the injury frequently occurs, it’s also just as likely that he really DID slip and fall, whether in the bathroom or elsewhere.  Several years ago, the same thing happened to my mother.  She was bringing in groceries to the house on a wet day, the wood deck was slick, and her feet went out from under her.  She stuck her hand out to try and brace herself, but couldn’t get it out all the way, so the base of the knuckle on her pinky took the brunt of the impact.  When she was in the ER, the staff all made the same assumption that Mariner fans have about Jack Wilson, that she had punched something, no matter how many times she tried to explain otherwise.

Again, we don’t know what actually happened, but it’s certainly a good thing to look at something like this from all possible viewpoints.

In other news, I’ll likely be heading to a Rainiers game this weekend, and will have another press box experience in Everett with the AquaSox on the 21st.  As usual, you guys will get full writeups on what I see while I’m there.

King Felix’s fastball was blistering, sitting in the mid 90s from the get go and moving all over the place.  When he located it in the bottom of the zone it looked to be moving more like a 95 MPH version of his great power changeup.  That changeup was there as well, sitting around 90-91 and moving like Felix was controlling its flight path with a joystick.  I still get a kick out of how hard that pitch is.  At one point that Felix struck out a hitter (Mark Ellis?) swinging and Dave Sims remarked that Felix “blew him away,” but the pitch was a changeup.  It’s unfair.  And just to pile on, Felix’s breaking ball was nasty as well.  He buckled a ton of knees tonight with a bender that was consistently sharper than we normally see it.  Those three nasty offerings culminated in a new career high in strikeouts for el Rey as he sat down 13 Oakland Athletics over 8 shutout frames.  Beyond those 13 strikeouts, Felix had six other A’s in 2-strike counts. 

Meanwhile, Anderson looked as good to me as I’ve ever seen him.  He’s a funny kind of dominant, because he doesn’t quite look like the type of guy who could shut your squad down.  He’s pudgy and doesn’t look particularly athletic, and the first three-quarters of his delivery appear so lazy that you wouldn’t expect him to get so much on his pitches.  Anderson was throwing heat tonight, averaging 93 and maxing out at 95.  I don’t remember him throwing that hard.  On top of that his breaker was just nasty (8 swinging strikes).  It’s good (well, not for the Mariners) to see that he’s doing just fine after a forearm/elbow injury sidelined him a couple times earlier in the year.  (Which brings me to this entry in the “I know you don’t care” department.  I had drafted Anderson in the PBNW 18-team Roto league, but while dealing with an injury epidemic and just one DL spot I reluctantly dropped him during his second DL stint following rumors that he would have season ending surgery.  Agh!)

King Felix: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K
Anderson: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Nice pitching matchup indeed.

Other assorted thoughts:

• Felix may have extended that career high had he been more willing to unleash the change or curve in a couple of those counts, most notably to Kevin Kouzmanoff in the first (he hit into an inning ending double play, so we’ll take it), Kurt Suzuki in the third and Jack Cust in the 7th.
• We ragged on Don Wakamatsu for putting together some odd lineups and now Daren Brown has followed that up with some curiousness of his own.  When Jose Lopez walked up to the plate as Seattle’s third hitter my initial reaction was to scoff, but that was quickly followed by sympathy.  The Mariners don’t have many hitters.  There are going to be guys out of position.  That said, there is little excuse for putting your lowest OBP hitter in the 3-hole, even if he is to be placed in the middle of the lineup per front office order (just a theory) and against a lefty.  How would you build the Mariner lineup?
• In the top of the 4th inning, a foul tip ate up Adam Moore and he went down.  In live action, I didn’t see where the ball caught Moore, but two clues (beyond Moore’s agony) gave it away pretty quick.  Felix leaning down and visibly making fun of Moore as well as FSN’s decision not to show a replay despite a lengthy delay were all you needed to see (or not see) in order to know Moore caught that ball right in the Beltres.  I only mention this because I found Felix’s interaction with Moore to be pretty amusing.
• In the 5th inning Moore threw out Cliff Pennington trying to steal second base.  Coco Crisp was batting and pulled back a bunt on this play, but it sure sounded like the ball tipped off his bat, and Crisp’s reaction might confirm this.  A break!
• I’m really happy to see Ichiro remain a happy human despite the departure of Ken Griffey Jr.  He’s become such a joy to watch that it’s getting a little more difficult to remember just how robotic and emotionless he was for the first 8 years of his Mariner career, and I feared he would fall back into that, especially in another lost season.  After he scored in the bottom of the sixth and after the ball game it was nice to see him smiling and joking around with his teammates.
• In the top of the 7th inning Matt Tuiasosopo ranged to his left to make a nice snare before uncorking a pretty horrible throw to first base.  Casey Kotchman made a fabulous pick on a ball that 9 out of 10 first baseman probably whiff on.  For all of Kotchman’s faults, he really is a stellar defender, and even though Justin Smoak isn’t terrible over there, I know I’m going to miss that when Kotchman inevitably leaves.  Just imagine how awesome Kotchman would be if his bat developed as expected.  STAR.
• Also in the top of the 7th, Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez nearly collided in right-center before Ichiro came up with the third out.  GASP.  I can’t imagine how scary that would have been had those two– perhaps the two most important position players on the team– gone down in a heap.  I don’t think I’ve even exhaled yet.  I think that should have been Guti’s ball, by the way.
• I really like the backstop camera FSN has started using on some pitches.  While it’s a little difficult to see where the pitch ends up, it offers a real nice opportunity to see how the balls break.  I’ve found it a nice consolation prize to not getting that high center field angle I’ve been begging for over the traditional off-center angle.
• I am so sick of seeing the wave during close games at Safeco.  It’s embarrassing, and further shows that Mariner fans are clueless.  The wave is for blowouts, people.  And even then, what’s the point of doing it in an empty stadium?  I know a lot of people hate the wave, and I generally do too, though I will admit it looks pretty sweet in a packed stadium.
• I really like Adam Moore’s apparent opposite field power.  It hasn’t really given him many results so far, but he keeps hitting balls to deep right field; two more tonight.  If Moore can stick around he’s going to benefit from that short porch more than the average right handed hitter.
• David Aardsma has pitched 4 days in a row.  4 days, not 4 games.  That seems kind of stupid.  I don’t really blame them given the circumstances, however.  Brandon League probably wasn’t available either since he had thrown 2 games in a row leading up to Tuesday night and they’ve been trying to cull down his workload in the second half, and there was no way they were going to put a Felix gem in the hands of Jamey Wright.  This bullpen needs some help.  Josh Lueke, anyone?
• Why does the catcher always give the ball to the closer after the final out?

Last night we learned that Wilson would require surgery on his hand and figures to miss about six weeks, meaning he could return with just a couple weeks left in the season, and will not be able to go on a normal minor league rehab assignment.  This appears to be the cherry on top of a season that saw just about everything go wrong for Wilson.  After missing so much time with the hamstring injury and struggling at the plate, Wilson had something to prove through the end of the season but will no longer have that chance.  (Update: Wilson may very well be out for the season.)

As mentioned time and time again, Wilson wasn’t expected to be an offensive cornerstone at the time of the trade, but he certainly need to do better than he has.  Since joining the Mariners Wilson has produced a .585 OPS, which is 102 points lower than he did in his many years with Pittsburgh and 139 points lower than what he did between 2004 and 2008.  Jeff at Lookout Landing recently noted that Wilson’s offense has taken a dive along side his contact rates.  Wilson’s previous offensive value was in simply making contact and hoping some fell in, but he has been swinging and missing and striking out far too often since changing teams for the first time after nine big league seasons with the Pirates.

Wilson is under contract with the Mariners for $5M next season.  So what happens next? 

For some teams, $5M for Wilson wouldn’t be that bad. But the Mariners will owe about $48M to just four players next season in Ichiro, Milton Bradley, Felix Hernandez and Chone Figgins, which figures to be over half of the overall payroll unless GM Jack Zduriencik’s allowance dramatically increases next season (which could happen, I suppose).  With all that money going to those four players, especially with $12M of that going to Bradley who may but probably won’t carry his weight, the rest of the money needs to be spent wisely.  $5M to a guy who has shown no ability to hit since being acquired and has lived up to his “made of glass” reputation may not be the best way to go.

Finding a taker for Wilson could be tough without eating money, which complicates things.  Having to send money with Wilson in a trade makes it harder to determine whether or not it’s worth moving him.  But if they can move him without having to eat money they may decide that they’re better off with a bargain scrub like Josh Wilson, Chris Woodward or someone else, or may want to pursue one of the few free agents at the position.

While I am beginning to lean the way of the “dump Wilson” crowd, I still wouldn’t mind seeing him back next year if no obvious deals come Seattle’s way.  He’s still a premium defender and I can still hold out hope that his contact rates will revert to career norms at some point.

The firing of Wakamatsu was not surprising.  The beat has been writing about such a scenario for quite a while because they obviously saw it coming from their privileged perch.  And just a few days ago Zduriencik gave Wak the dreaded vote of confidence:

“Don is our manager,” Zduriencik said. “He’s running the ball club. He’s here right now. He’s running the ball club. I don’t much more I could say. He is the manager of the Seattle Mariners.”

The over use of present tense gives it away.

I’m not broken up about it.  I didn’t really like Wak anyway.  Last year he was nice because the team just needed to heal, but this year they needed to win, and he didn’t seem to do quite what the team needed him to do on or off the field.  If he’s not a leader, that’s a deal breaker, as that is quite possibly the most important thing for a manager to do.  It may be easy to think of the manager’s job description to manager the game on the field, but we’ve heard over the years that it is more important to simply manage the group of men that make up the team.  And while the on-field stuff probably isn’t as important, it’s certainly more visible to us fans, and since I wasn’t a fan of Wak’s on-field management I can move on from this pretty easily.

His bullpen management was frustrating, especially his love affair with Sean White, who was the worst arm in the ‘pen at times.  His lineup building skills were suspect, although we have to wonder how many of the iffy decisions over the past couple months (or perhaps the entire season) came from the top.  Interim manager Daren Brown’s first lineup still features Casey Kotchman hitting third and Jose Lopez in the middle of the order, after all.  The bunting was out of control.  Based on some of his comments in the past, we can wonder how many of the bunts were done without Wak’s signal, but even if Wak never called a single one that is no excuse.  It is Wak’s responsibility.  Same goes for the sometimes overly aggressive base stealing and base running.

Those things won’t stop Wak from getting another job, and those things didn’t matter in a season where so many were underperforming.  If the Mariners were fighting for a playoff spot, maybe some better on-field management steals enough games to squeeze past the Rangers, but those on-field decisions aren’t what sunk the season.

While the firing of Wakamatsu didn’t come as much of a shock, the subsequent firings of bench coach Ty Van Burkleo, pitching coach Rick Adair and performance coach Steve Hecht were.  We don’t often see these wholesale changes midseason.  If this played out like most other managerial firings, Van Burkleo would be sitting pretty.  If this played out like most other managerial firings, those other guys might have kept their jobs at least until a new permanent manager was installed and allowed to assemble his own staff.

But I suppose this makes some sense.  They’re probably goners anyway, so they may as well get it over with.  And I think this also shows that Wak’s firing wasn’t just a way to show the fans they just care.  Doing this way gives the move more weight.  Doing it this way showed that this move was about bringing about real change, rather than just sacrificing the field manager.

What did the Mariners lose in those coaches?  I can’t answer that from where I sit.  I literally know nothing about Van Burkleo.  He’s been as mysterious as any prominent Mariner staff member as any in recent memory.  And the effects of Adair and Hecht weren’t exactly measurable for better or for worse.  But they obviously weren’t doing what Zduriencik and company wanted.  I thought it was telling that Adair wasn’t consulted during the Cliff Lee-Texas negotiations despite the fact that he had directly coached both Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke.

Here’s hoping that the next batch of coaches form a winning combination, with help from a better on-field product, of course.  As for who those guys will be, there’s plenty of time for that.  For now we’ll see how things go for interim replacements Daren Brown, Roger Hansen, Carl Willis and Pedro Grifol.

Tacoma manager Daren Brown will take over as manager, catching coordinator Roger Hansen steps in as bench coach, minor league pitching coordinator Carl Willis has been tabbed as the next Mariner pitching coach.

Some reaction, analysis, etc once this sets in and we get some quotes from GM Jack Zduriencik.

(Tweet, tweet)

How did Jack Wilson acquire that injury, though? There have been no plays on the field lately that would suggest something like that would have happened.  Well, per Ryan Divish (via Twitter), he slipped and fell in his bathroom last night, hitting his hand trying to break his fall.

I wish I was kidding.

Update (Jon): Out about 6 weeks.

To anyone who is familiar with Kelley’s history, this doesn’t come as much of a surprise; Kelly’s elbow has a long history of issues, and is why he was moved to the bullpen to begin with.  Unfortunately, this seemed like the most likely result when he was shut down for so long before finally starting to do some long toss and start his rehab.  Things seemed to go smoothly for Shawn in his rehab assignment with Tacoma, but his elbow started to bother him earlier in the week, and he had an MRI, CAT scan, and an examination from Dr. Lewis Yocum while he was in town to do Erik Bedard’s shoulder surgery.  The results of those tests as to the specifics of the injury have apparently been unclear, but surgery is still apparently needed, at an exploratory level if nothing else.

Divish reported that the CAT scan showed no stress fracture in Kelley’s elbow, which is very good news for him and the team.  Such injuries are difficult for pitchers to come back from, and many are never the same after the injury.

Adding to the cloud of uncertainty over this situation, manager Don Wakamatsu was quoted as saying “it could be a year, or [Kelley] could be ready for Spring Training”.  Right now, no one knows the extent of the injury, but hopes seem to be high that it might not be as bad as it could be.  Kelley himself actually still has hopes that he might not need surgery, telling reporters that there’s one more test still to be done before he decides what needs to be done for sure.  He described the test as a “stress X-ray”, where his elbow will be pushed on during the imaging process to help determine the physical stability of the joint.  If the results show instability, that would suggest that the major ligament in Kelley’s elbow has been stretched out, which would require the dreaded Tommy John surgery.

Hopefully for the sake of both Shawn Kelley and the team, things aren’t as bad with the young man’s elbow as they sound like they could be.  We all wish him a speedy recovery and return to his previous form out in the bullpen.

Erik Bedard’s shoulder, Mariner outlook

As you know, Erik Bedard made it all the way through what was supposed to be his final rehab start before experiencing some discomfort in his shoulder.  As you also know, Bedard is scheduled for another shoulder surgery, effectively ending his season before it really got going.  What you may not know is the goals up the upcoming surgery.

Jeff at Lookout Landing has the goods by way of Le Droit.  Bedard is reportedly having bone spurs removed from his shoulder, which seems like a pesky hangnail after all he’s been through.  While it would have been green if he could’ve made it to the big leagues this year, but this is good news.

Jeff also relays a quote from Bedard about 2011, where Bedard basically says what he was saying last offseason.  “If they still want me, I would like to return,” says Bedard.

The Mariners will decline their option on Bedard but I am definitely in the same boat with Jeff in hoping the Mariners bring him back on the cheap.  What’s the harm?  Hell, I would have advocated bringing him back even if this latest setback were serious.

Shawn Kelley has a setback

Shawn Kelley’s rehab assignment has not been successful.  Kelley came down with a sore elbow in June, and just when it looked like he was about to rejoin the Mariners he’s admitted that he’s not bouncing back after outings like he would healthy.  His latest rehab outing with Everett has been scratched and he will meet with team doctors.

As we’ve been reminding you since the injury, Kelley’s past Tommy John surgery causes any elbow issues to be more concerning than they might be otherwise.  I obviously don’t know what’s wrong with Kelley, but I will say that I’m not necessarily expecting him to be in the Opening Day 2011 bullpen.  Hopefully he can avoid any major setbacks.  We’ll see.

Check out Ryan Divish’s complete report with quotes from Kelley and the team.  Divish also mentions that Ryan Rowland-Smith is set to rehab and that Ian Snell has gone on Tacoma’s DL with elbow pain.

Carlos Delgado?

No, I don’t understand Seattle’s connection to Carlos Delgado.  Do you?  Maybe they have their eye on him for 2011 DH.  If so, I’m sure we’ll have plenty of time to talk about him down the road.

Bleacher Report continues to drive me up the wall

You are probably familiar with Bleacher Report and how frustrating their organization is for everyone with half a brain.  BR features inexperienced bloggers who often know very little about what they’re writing about spewing nonsense under misleading headlines.  That in itself isn’t all that bad.  There are scores of websites on the internet where this is also the case.  But BR is a big site that brings in a lot of traffic, are featured on Google News, and so on.  I would gladly pay them no mind, but it’s difficult when I get emails and comments from you guys every time they tag a ridiculous trade speculation post with “MARINERS ON THE VERGE OF ACQUIRING [Player X]!!!!??!!!”

Anyway, our buddy Harrison forwarded me their newsletter, which featured this gem:

I am not affiliated with Bleacher Report.  The other sites in this newsletter (Seattle Times, Fox Sports, Seattle P-I) aren’t either.  But they stuck a Bleacher Report link between all of those, apparently hoping that they could make their site look more legitimate by grouping it in with reputable organizations.  I suppose I should be flattered that I was the only site that isn’t a major news source, and the little bit of traffic these newsletters send me doesn’t hurt (I’ve been wondering where the Bleacher Report traffic had been coming from before discovering today), but look at that headline!

This is a link to my post entitled “Does Mike Wilson Deserve a Shot?” Somehow my post detailing Wilson’s struggles, long route to the minor leagues’ highest level and uncertainty surrounding his future as a big leaguer turned into “Mariners Allowing Big League-Quality Slugger to Rot in Triple A?”  What a joke.  I realize that a provocative headline drives more traffic than a straight one, but that’s pushing it.  And given their history, it’s not surprising.

So I sent my angry email asking them to never link me again and that they’re within their rights to drive traffic to their website under false pretenses, but that they had better not drag MY name through the mud ever again.  I don’t need their traffic.

God, I hate Bleacher Report so much.

So if any of your read them, please stop.  Seriously.  There are so many better places to get your fix that there should be no reason to go there.  Besides, what do you get out of it anyway?  You make yourself dumber by reading anything over there.  If you need a list of sites that will not waste your time, I will gladly point you in the right direction.

Sheesh.

Now I’m worked up (again).

Pro Ball NW’s most popular posts for July 2010

10. So You Want Cliff Lee: Reds – July 7th

In June I started running through the trade chips of potential Cliff Lee destinations, and the Reds emerged as a possible suitor early on.  In this post we discussed Yonder Alonso (who is on fire lately, by the way) and Kevin Frazier among others.  Of course, the Rangers wound up with Lee (read on), but the Reds reportedly made a late push for the ace.

9. Mariner Sign Castillo, Two Others – July 15th

International free agency kicks off every year on July 2nd, but a weak crop and more and more questions about player age, identity and possible PED use slowed things down a bit this season, and Seattle’s first signings weren’t known until the middle of the month.  In this post we talk briefly about Seattle’s top pickup, Phillips Castillo, as well as Jose Torres and Yordyn Calderon.  The post also features good video of Castillo from last year.

8. Dugout Altercation – July 24th

On July 23rd, Chone Figgins, Don Wakamatsu and several other players got into a brawl in the Mariners dugout.  This post simply features a YouTube video and an alternate angle .gif of the event.

7. Fighting for 2011: Back of the Rotation – July 12th

With 2010 down the drain and 2011 now in focus, this post looked ahead at the back of the 2011 rotation, specifically with regards to Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Ryan Rowland-Smith and how they were positioned to grab a hold of the two spots figuring to be available next year.  RRS has since fallen further back in that race.

6. M’s Complete 6-player Deal with Texas – July 9th

The Cliff Lee trade, of course.  This post discussed just what the Mariners were getting in Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Blake Beavan and Matt Lawson to go along with a goodbye to our departed ace.

5. The Figgins-Wak Confrontation – July 26th

After allowing the weekend to let the events of the 23rd set in I offered up a constructed account of what happened and my thoughts on the episode.  Such excitement!

4. So You Want Cliff Lee: Mets II – July 1st

The Mariners series in New York at the beginning of the month produced enough Mets trade speculation that we could discuss more of what the Mets had to offer and address some of the fresh speculation that was out there.  This post focused on Angel Pagan, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, Wilmer Flores and a couple others, none of whom I thought would excite the Mariners as a centerpiece.

3. Elite Prospects and the Mariners – July 20th

I’m happy to see that a lot of you read this one, because it wound up being a lot more work than I had originally anticipated.  It’s amazing how easily former stud prospects are forgotten once they are busted or no longer the center of attention.  Inspired by the acquisition of one of the league’s elite prospects in Justin Smoak, I used this post to look back as far as the mid-1990s to see how Seattle has fared in handling these elite prospects.  Of all of last month’s posts, this one was the most enjoyable to write, and I learned/re-learned a lot in the process.

2. Mariner Trade Deadline Predictions – July 23rd

Well, David Aardsma is still a Mariner so I whiffed on that one (the Octavio Dotel haul continues to make me wonder what could have been), but Brandon League and Jack Wilson are still around.  Were they shopped?  Who knows.  Jose Lopez is also still around, but there’s no telling if that is because the Mariners wanted to keep him or if it’s because no one would take him.

1. Rundown of Mariner Trade Chips – July 5th

It’s no surprise that the two most popular posts of the month had to do with Mariner trade speculation.  Of course, Cliff Lee was the only one traded from my list, while Jose Lopez and David Aardsma were the only other guys I genuinely expected to be moved.

A few more that just missed the cut:

• Collecting Ex-Mariners
• Scouting Review: Tacoma Rainiers (Conor)
• So You Want Cliff Lee: Rays
• A Little Tribute to Mark Lowe

Sweeney had just finished up his rehab assignment and a decision had to be made.  This move probably has more to do with the Mariners saying “thank you” to Sweeney for being a team player and the positive contributions he’s made on and off the field while with the team than anything else.  Sweeney, in what is probably his final season, will now get a shot to make the playoffs for the first time.  He will provide a patch for the Phillies while Ryan Howard recovers from an ankle injury.

Wilson had started switch hitting as a senior in high school, but gave it up after no more than a couple seasons of pro ball.  Wilson started making a name for himself with his impressive raw power, but pitch recognition and strikeouts held him back.  He strung up a few decent seasons between 2003 and 2006 before running into serious trouble in 2007.  Following an abysmal start for AA West Tenn, Wilson tore a quad, missed a bunch of time, then strained the muscle again upon returning.  The 24 year old only made it into 57 games that season.

2008 was a big bounce back year for Wilson as he put up a career high slugging percentage (.549), OPS (.938) and home run total (27) in 119 games.  Wilson still wasn’t considered a big prospect, however.  He was 25 at this point, had just completed his third consecutive season in which he’d spent significant time at the AA level and his strikeouts were still a bit of a problem.

Wilson, added to the 40-man roster at this point, turned some heads the following Spring Training as he attempted to jump onto the big league club, but was ultimately waived to make room for Ken Griffey Jr.  Wilson cleared, re-signed with Seattle and headed to AAA Tacoma.  2009 was another lost season, however, as Wilson missed significant time with an ankle injury and struggled to get anything done in Tacoma as he was sent back to West Tenn.

Mike Wilson turned 27 years old this season.  He started the year with another nice Spring Training, but was cut towards the end of February and sent back to West Tenn to make room for younger, more promising prospects in Tacoma.  Healthy again, Wilson picked up where he left off in 2007, mashing his way to a .292/.402/.585 line through 29 games, prompting a callup to Tacoma.  The promotion didn’t slow Wilson down.  Through 71 games with Tacoma Wilson is hitting .297/.381/.559, bringing his combined season line to .296/.388/.567 with 24 homers, all while putting up the lowest strikeout rate of his career.

Given Seattle’s complete lack of offense this season, it’s easy to see why Wilson’s name is coming up as a possible solution.  Can Wilson be a productive player for the Seattle Mariners?

The age leads a lot of people to just write Wilson off completely, but I’d wager that there is a slight difference between a 27 year old who was held up by injuries and a 27 year old who has simply mastered the level in AAAA fashion.  2010 is Wilson’s longest and most successful stint in AAA.  Injuries are not completely to blame, however– it’s not as if Wilson is a former top 5 prospect who has been derailed– but neither is the “late bloomer” merely a baseball myth.  Rare, sure, but it happens.

It’s not as if Wilson is succeeding without us knowing why.  He has a big league power tool, and he walks at a decent clip.  This season it looks like he’s modified his approach, being a little more aggressive (fewer walks) but cutting way down on the number of called strikeouts getting called against him, something that was a problem in the past.  A hitter can’t be afraid to hit with two strikes, but constantly getting into two strike counts is just playing with fire.  Ask Chone Figgins.

I can’t say whether or not Wilson can be effective at the next level.  His path to the minor leagues’ highest level has not been swift, but he’s done what he needs to do.  He’s made himself into a good AAA player, which is all we can ask for at this point.  And it’s not just the bat that’s come around; he is still plenty athletic enough to hold down a corner outfield spot.  Now he just needs to wait for a chance.

And he may not get one in Seattle barring injury.  Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez aren’t going anywhere and Michael Saunders has more upside than that of Wilson, justifying giving him the playing time.  And now with Justin Smoak and Russell Branyan in the fold along with Milton Bradley, DH at bats aren’t easy to come by.

Seattle may give him a courtesy callup in September and, if he’s retained over the offseason, may allow him to compete for a 4th outfielder/left field platoon position if there is one available, but there isn’t a clear path to the majors for Wilson at this point.

Wilson deserves a shot, but he might have to get it elsewhere.  I hope to see him in Spring Training with Seattle, however.