First Basemen

Since Tino Martinez’s departure following the 1995 season the Seattle Mariners have relied on free agency to fill their first base needs.  Paul Sorrento and David Segui were solid for two seasons each, John Olerud was a minor star for a few seasons before hitting the decline phase of his career, Richie Sexson had one very good season before he started to sputter out, and Russell Branyan put up a great half season before a back injury slowed him down and eventually ended his year prematurely. Despite having one prospect big league ready, the Mariners figure to seek more production on the free agent or trade market.  However, they finally have another prospect, still a couple seasons away, that will look to top Tino as Seattle’s best in-house first baseman since Alvin Davis.

.

1.	Rich Poythress, 1B/DH 08/11/87 (22) West Tenn-Tacoma

Drafted in the 2nd round (#51 overall) in the 2009 draft. Listed at 6’4/235. Bats right. Poythress may have been the second best college hitter after Dustin Ackley. While that is certainly debatable, it is obvious that the Mariners landed an offensively polished player in Poythress. After his sheer size and strength, the thing that jumps out most about Poythress may be his knowledge of the strikezone and willingness to take a walk. He had more walks than strikeouts in his final two seasons with Georgia, and managed 20 walks in just 32 games between Arizona and West Tenn in his 2009 pro debut. The two most hit on negatives at draft time would probably be his bat speed and his defense. A common draft line was that “his power is more strength than bat speed oriented,” leaving his pro contact rates to be determined. But he’s going to hit the ball a long way and he’s going to get on base.  Poythress isn’t expected to take long to develop, and could be ready for big league action some point during the 2011 season, possibly ready for regular duty by 2012.

2.	Mike Carp, 1B 06/30/86 (23) Tacoma-Seattle

One of several players acquired in trade from the New York Mets in the three way J.J. Putz-Franklin Gutierrez trade on 12/10/08. Listed at 6’2/215. Bats left. Has a pretty swing and great approach at the plate, but the combination of a low power ceiling and below average contact rates put future in question. “Lyle Overbay minus the defensive reputation” is the most common comp, making him a league average-ish first baseman. However, when Carp does get a hold of one he has a habit of hitting them 450 feet, so while his swing is geared towards consistency and line drives, I wonder if he might develop some more consistent power as he gets comfortable in the big leagues. I would be more confident in predicting this if he made more consistent contact (“great hitters develop power”– Carp has a great approach, but is not presently a great hitter), but there still is a chance. Despite having a lower upside than most of these other first basemen, he’s #2 on this list because of his proximity to the big leagues (he’s ready) and probability of reaching expectations.

3.	Dennis Raben, RF/1B 07/31/87 (22) High Desert

Drafted in the 2nd round (#66 overall) of the 2008 amateur draft. Listed at 6’3/220. Bats left. Knee injury (microfracture surgery) wiped out his entire 2009 and many are now questioning his future. His career as an outfielder is almost certainly over, which hurts his stock as he looked like he could handle RF for a few years. Before the injury he paired light tower power with a great approach at the plate. Swing was a little long, however, making him susceptible to the strikeout. Probably a three true outcome type with Jack Cust-type upside if the knee doesn’t hinder him going forward. Raben is a monster and I’m definitely rooting for him. He hopes to be ready for 2010 Spring Training, but I think he could get off to a late start next season.

4.	Jharmidy De Jesus, 1B/3B 08/30/89 (20) Clinton

Signed as an amateur free agent on 8/14/07 for $1M. Listed at 6’3/190. Bats right. One of my favorite prospects coming into the 2009 season, De Jesus didn’t progress as expected. In fact, key members of the Mariners player development staff have said that he showed no real improvement whatsoever after a shoulder injury held him out of full-season baseball. De Jesus hit just .249/.340/.385 in 194 plate appearances for rookie-level Pulaski after hitting .309/.376/.530 over 247 plate appearances between rookie-level Arizona and low-A Everett the year before. Still, the physical tools are there for him to become a very good player and while he’s a free swinger, he isn’t completely lost at the plate. De Jesus has good raw power and, while he can get a little pull happy like many young hitters, has shown off power to all fields.  Hopefully he can rebound in full season baseball in 2010.

5.	Joe Dunigan, 1B/OF 03/29/86 (23) West Tenn

Drafted in the 5th round (#165 overall) of the 2007 amateur draft. Listed at 6’1/215. Bats left. Dunigan burst onto the prospect scene this past season by posting big numbers in High Desert. He hit .294/.355/.570 with 30 homers and 104 RBI in 118 games. His home/away splits were telling though, as 21 of his homers came in the High Desert launching pad and he hit just .244/.313/.431 on the road. Dunigan has very good raw power and can whip the bat around with the best of them, but in the past he’s counteracted much of that by employing a very long swing path, which, along with struggles laying off good breaking balls and lefties, shows up in the big strikeout totals. Some reports also mention a swing hitch that keeps him from maximizing his natural raw power. The swing has shortened a bit though, and he had a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League. At 23 he’s a little old for the level for a legitimate prospect, but he’s someone worth keeping an eye on. I don’t think he’s a regular, but he might be a good platoon bat some day.

Watch list – Andres Brito: 2009 IFA is just 16 but 6’4/230. Described as one of the better power hitters on the international market last summer. Signed as a 3B, but will likely move across. Johan Limonta: Got more attention than he should have during the Bavasi years because of his high OBPs (a system rarity then), but is about to lose prospect status at age 26. The Cuban can hit and walk, but no power. Career .294/.367/.459. Gerardo Avila: Breakout year in Everett, but is old for the level. (Edit: became a free agent, signed with Atlanta. See comments)

The disclaimer: I do these reports and rankings as part of my own baseball education, and figure that some people will enjoy the information and opinions I’ve compiled.  I am by no means an expert evaluator of minor league talent, so all views and rankings should be taken with a grain of salt and are very much up for discussion.  It is a hobby, but something that I am relatively new at.  I am inexperienced enough that I don’t have much of a track record in terms of predicting the outcomes of prospects, but hopefully these types of posts will allow me to look back in a few years and see what I got right and all I got wrong.

Here are my top 25+ Seattle Mariners prospects as of today.  I will try to post updated lists several times a year: offseason, early season, post- draft and International Signing Day, and perhaps a few in between.

I received some good input from Rob T. on this as well, and he’ll be co-authoring the lists in the future.

Please try not to get too worked up about exact placement of the players on the bottom half of the list (including the “Notables”).  They’re fairly interchangeable, depending on what you think makes a good prospect.  I appreciate all feedback, and feel free to submit your sleepers!

If you want to skip the blurbs there is a chart at the bottom of the post.

1.) Carlos Triunfel, MIF – Finally showed a little bit of pop in 2008 and finished the year with a very good AFL performance against much more advanced competition.  2009 could be a big year for him.

2.) Phillippe Aumont, RHP – Amazing stuff and control for someone whose mechanics are such a mess.  If he can smooth out his follow-through and start repeating his delivery he’ll become one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

3.) Michael Saunders, OF – He’s not typically regarded as a high upside prospect (although Baseball America called him a “potential five-tool talent” before the season), but a safe bet to be a Major League contributor.  Line drive swing (although a bit long), plus speed, good defender.  If he can stick in center field his value will increase, but right now he looks like a left handed version of Jayson Werth or Corey Hart.

4.) Greg Halman, CF - The tools are there– more so than anyone on this list– but for now I’m unconvinced that he can get around the awful K:BB ratios that are handicapping him.  He’s performed at every level through AA; will it continue?

5.) Juan Ramirez, RHSP - Doesn’t have the numbers of Aumont or Pineda, but of the three he’s known as the most polished.  His fastball runs low-to-mid 90s and he throws a sharp breaking curve and solid changeup as well.  His body and delivery have been compared to Rafael Soriano.

6.) Adam Moore, C - I want to have him higher, but this is where he lands right now.  .900+ OPS for each of the last two seasons and a reputation for handling pitching staffs well, Moore could be the complete package behind the plate after a little more defensive fine tuning.

7.) Michael Pineda, RHSP – A lot of people have him higher on their lists after a breakout campaign in 2008, but I want to hear more reports about how his secondary pitches are developing.  I am in love with his control, though (128:35 K:BB).

8.) Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B – Some people view him as a disappointment, but a strong second half in 2008 and a good approach at the plate have made me a believer.  I think he’ll have a big year in 2009, though he has to work on his defense.

9.) Mike Carp, 1B – His bat isn’t as powerful as you’d like from a first baseman, but a solid 2008 at AA (.299/.403/.471) and 17 game VWL stint (.260/.403/.480) have me believing he can be a useful major leaguer.   Is among the most disciplined hitters in the system.

10.) Dennis Raben, OF/1B – Only 27 pro games to go from, but he’s expected to shoot through the system and could move up this list as his minor league sample grows.  Profiles similarly to Carp, but he should have more power, which bodes well.  He’ll leapfrog Carp on this list sooner than later, but he needs to add to his professional resume first.

11.) Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B – Showed good skills as a 18 year old in his USA debut this past season.  Tons a raw power and seems to take enough walks to get by.  Defense at third appears to be a major problem, however.  He was a personal favorite of mine in 2008.

12.) Rob Johnson, C – Looks like a very solid backup with starting upside perhaps in the vicinity of Dan Wilson.  Could be higher on this list, and may be dealt this offseason.

13.) Mario Martinez, 3B – Already looking like a good hitter and most think he’ll develop some decent power as well.  Struggling defensively at third base since moving over from shortstop, but he’s still very green.  He could move very quickly up or down depending on how he does in A-ball.

14.) Maikel Cleto, RHSP – He’s very young and throws the heat, which is good enough for him to crack any prospect list.  Similar problems to most young fireballers: control, secondary pitches, repeating deliver.  He’s a starter now, but many think he’ll end up a closer in the big leagues.

15.) Nathan Adcock, RHSP – Largely overshadowed by the big-three in Wisconsin (Aumont, Ramirez, Pineda), this guy is looking like a very good pitcher.  He improved his walk and strikeout rates this past season and looks like a solid middle-to-back of the rotation starter at this point.

16.) Shawn Kelley, RHRP – Very good reliever.  Low-to-mid 90s fastball and great slider to go with very good control.  Injuries could be a concern.

17.) Gabriel Noriega, SS – He’s a great defender and a switch hitter with a bit of power potential, which is enough to make him a very good shortstop prospect.  This kid may be Seattle’s real shortstop of the future, though he spent 2008 in rookie ball.

18.) Efrain Nunez, OF – A 17 year old that has yet to debut in the United States, this kid was a highly regarded international prospect like many others on this list, including Triunfel, DeJesus, Noriega and Morban.  Switch hitter, some good plate skills and plus raw power.

19.) Gaby Hernandez, RHSP – A very highly regarded pitching prospect as recently as last offseason, he seems to have lost the bite on his once great curveball as well as a few MPH on his fastball.  2009 could be considered a make or break season, although he is still just 22.  Last year he would have cracked the top 10.

20.) Mike Wilson, COF – Getting old for a prospect that hasn’t yet reached AAA, but Wilson is still extremely powerful.  He posted a .937 OPS with AA last season, and could make his MLB debut at some point in 2009 now that he’s been re-added to the 40-man roster.

21.) Justin Thomas, LHRP – I might have him higher if he remained a starter, but he seems destined for a relief role and could make Seattle’s Opening Day roster for 2009.  Solid fastball/slider/change combo, but how much value can you truly get out of a lefty reliever?

22.) Julio Morban, CF – Because he’s only 16 and may not make his USA debut until 2010 or later, I can’t put him any higher on the list just yet.  He is expected to be a very good player, with scouts and insiders calling him the “best pure hitter” to sign this year out of the international prospects pool, adding that he has a “strong grasp of the game.” 5’11″ 178 lbs, solid approach from the left side of the plate and good bat speed.

23.) Ezequiel Carrera, CF -  A plus-plus defender in center, a patient hitter at the plate and a speedster on the basepaths.   Some believe he could develop some power down the road as well.

24.) Brett Lorin, RHSP – A huge guy at 6’7″ 245 lbs, he was a 5th rounder this year out of Long Beach State and struck out 61 hitters in 52.1 innings in his first professional season, including 13 hitters in Everett’s home opener.  Could rise up this list quickly.

25.) Tyson Gillies, CF – Saw him play once in Everett.  Looks like a good athlete and is very fast.  Good defender at any outfield position with a grade-A arm, and works the count well from the left side of the plate.  Hasn’t hit the ball for much authority just yet, but could be a leadoff option if he reaches his potential.  It’ll be interesting to see if he can overcome his hearing disability.

Other Notables:

LHRP Cesar Jimenez, 1B/LF Johan Limonta, RHP Doug Fister, 1B/LF Javier Brito, MIF Reegie Corona, RHSP Fabian Williamson, LHSP Henry Perez, OF/DH Carlos Peguero, OF Denny Almonte, RHRP Stephen Kahn, OF Kuo Hio Lo, LHRP Jose Lugo, RHSP Kenn Kasparek, LHSP Nick Hill

Sleepers:

Steven Hensley (3rd round) and Aaron Pribanic (5th),  RHSPs - These high 2008 draft picks haven’t seen much pro action yet, but could climb the ladder quickly if they perform in 2009.

Luke Burnett, RHP - Another 2008 draft pick that has barely tasted pro ball, this guy was once a highly regarded starter whose stock plummeted after an injury, allowing Seattle to steal him in the 14th round.  He may not be durable enough to remain a starter, but some have suspected that the 6’8 260 pounder could rocket through the system in a season or two if made into a full-time reliever.

Donnie Hume, LHSP – A confident lefty that pitched for collegiate baseball hotbeds Long Beach State and San Diego State before becoming an 8th round pick in 2007. He relies on control, but showed the ability to miss bats as well in his pro debut.

Last modified: 12/31/08 @ 5:30pm